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Modern WI: PRC remained marginalized?

Mark Poe

The majestic cock
Writing Champ
PODs: in which Nixon did not go to the PRC during the 1970s, and Taiwan's status as the legitimate China is maintained (the latter might involve more US pressures on various 3rd world countries at the time). As such there was no major foreign investment and trade after death of Mao.

How would things change? I figure that exodus of industries from the developed countries would still occur, most likely more of it (as compared to OTL) going to various southeast Asian countries, India, and Latin America. Would the PRC end up similar to the DPRK? (especially if the various reformers would be discredited as their attempt to open the door just ended up with it slamming it in their face). Assuming the USSR still falls in around the 90s would the "new world order"/"end of history" continue for a far longer period? Who, after the fall of the USSR, would rise the challenge the USA? EU? [a much more economically powerful] India?
 
Couldn't be much worse than a scaled up Juche empire then? (as the PRC would unlikely have the ability to acquire technologies and the economic capability to implement them even with the ones they steal) Even though most likely the Philippines, India, etc. would be much better off than OTL (since a lot of the investments that have gone to the PRC in OTL would have gone to them instead) in which they could serve as a counterbalance of sorts?
 
Couldn't be much worse than a scaled up Juche empire then? (as the PRC would unlikely have the ability to acquire technologies and the economic capability to implement them even with the ones they steal) Even though most likely the Philippines, India, etc. would be much better off than OTL (since a lot of the investments that have gone to the PRC in OTL would have gone to them instead) in which they could serve as a counterbalance of sorts?
No, Mao had acquired nuclear tech in the late 1950s/early 1960s and quickly jumped to thermonuclear within a decade of their first atomic detonation. While much of their rockets and bombers were hand-me-downs from the Soviets during Stalin's reign, they were capable enough to cause problems. Problems that are likely to go nuclear. Remember, the PRC is built upon the humiliation conga that is the Unequal Treaties and it's core support is built upon 'righting the humiliation of the Unequal Treaties' and is willing to do anything to make it happen. Only the threat of Russia coming down upon it pops on Mao and his posse's radar. Mao's 'great leap forward' should have normally caused China to undergo civil war (again, Chinese history has plenty of times where such things happened and the dynasty would be quickly overthrown). Yet it didn't because the Unequal Treaties were just that scaring to the Chinese collective psyche.
 
But with a further marginalized PRC (and the sino soviet split still a thing) meaning that there are even more pressures/threats on them all the time?
 
But with a further marginalized PRC (and the sino soviet split still a thing) meaning that there are even more pressures/threats on them all the time?
Here's the thing, historically once China decides on a course of action, the only way you can stop them is create incredible amounts of upheaval to overthrow the government. They are the descendants of the creators of the Great Wall of China, a project that consumed decades to centuries of time, untold amounts of dirt and stone, untold numbers of lives, and stretched hundreds to thousands of miles through some of the most treacherous terrain. When the Chinese puts their minds to something, they go for it even if it means many lives parish.
 
So would the SDI get further in this case? At least with the US & USSR tacitly agreeing to build ABM systems (orbital or otherwise) just good enough to stop the obsolete nuke missile spam of the PRC?
 
So would the SDI get further in this case? At least with the US & USSR tacitly agreeing to build ABM systems (orbital or otherwise) just good enough to stop the obsolete nuke missile spam of the PRC?
No, unless Khrushchev stays in power (and, due to how bad he fumbled in some places, Khrushchev will be kicked out rather quick the moment an embarrassing stumble pops up), the USSR is likely to tell the US that there will be no ABMs, ever. A decent enough ABM system will fucks them over too mind you.
 
No, unless Khrushchev stays in power (and, due to how bad he fumbled in some places, Khrushchev will be kicked out rather quick the moment an embarrassing stumble pops up), the USSR is likely to tell the US that there will be no ABMs, ever. A decent enough ABM system will fucks them over too mind you.
Wouldn't the threat of a clearly unhinged PRC to their south lead them to at least consider something to that effect, if only to preserve the status quo rather than let the upstarts potentially sparking a WWIII that neither of them (USA & USSR) wants?
 
Wouldn't the threat of a clearly unhinged PRC to their south lead them to at least consider something to that effect, if only to preserve the status quo rather than let the upstarts potentially sparking a WWIII that neither of them (USA & USSR) wants?
Yeah, no. The Soviets' (and through them, Russia's) geopolitical goals are pretty much an extension of Tzarist Russia's... and they really don't have the realpolitik mentality necessary to do something like that. Especially within the 2-3 decades after WW2. It wasn't until influential party members realized that if they didn't go into realpolitik more, they'll be the ones to initiate WW3... and that didn't happen until the mid-to-late '70s.
 
So there's still the possibilities of something happening in the 80s then, as both the big boys realize they have a common threat of their own making...
 
So there's still the possibilities of something happening in the 80s then, as both the big boys realize they have a common threat of their own making...
Not that likely, a lot of it was because of Nixon being a magnificent bastard and normalizing US-Chinese relations...
 
You'd certainly be unlikely to see as strong a modern China in 2018 as we have now, cheap goods made in China have been the primary way in which the Chinese have transformed their former mostly agricultural economy into a cheap exporting.

On the other-hand, you then lack the obvious boogeyman to blame the problems of the rustbelt on, possibly meaning you have a much decreased popularity of protectionism in America, which kills someone like Trump getting in.
 
You'd certainly be unlikely to see as strong a modern China in 2018 as we have now, cheap goods made in China have been the primary way in which the Chinese have transformed their former mostly agricultural economy into a cheap exporting.

On the other-hand, you then lack the obvious boogeyman to blame the problems of the rustbelt on, possibly meaning you have a much decreased popularity of protectionism in America, which kills someone like Trump getting in.
Not as strong China? Yes. A Weak China? Fuck no. That's one of the underlying drives and what the ruling party has to keep from falling into to stay in power.
 
On the other-hand, you then lack the obvious boogeyman to blame the problems of the rustbelt on, possibly meaning you have a much decreased popularity of protectionism in America, which kills someone like Trump getting in.

Nah, that's pretty unlikely. The boogeyman would be either us SE Asians, the Indians, or just a continuation of the Japanese scare during the 80s and 90s. Sure, it wouldn't be as potent, but we'd still be a viable target nonetheless.
 
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