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Modern What If. WW2 germany is delivered it's Entire planned production of XXI submarines

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
They still get fucked through lack of fuel, through ASW weaponry and such, doing a bit more damage before collapsing. Germany can’t win the war.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
They still get fucked through lack of fuel, through ASW weaponry and such, doing a bit more damage before collapsing. Germany can’t win the war.
XXI were pretty resistant to most ASW of the day.

Their high speed, deep diving ability, and stealth made them huge bitches to deal with, at least in theory.
 
C

Celene

Guest
They still get fucked through lack of fuel, through ASW weaponry and such, doing a bit more damage before collapsing. Germany can’t win the war.
Wasn't it not until after really extensive bombing had been done that Germany lacked fuel? IIRC they had quite high production.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
XXI were pretty resistant to most ASW of the day.

Their high speed, deep diving ability, and stealth made them huge bitches to deal with, at least in theory.
Too bad that the Allies had actual homing ASW torpedoes operational.
Wasn't it not until after really extensive bombing had been done that Germany lacked fuel? IIRC they had quite high production.
Not that much. They went to Stalingrad to get the Caucasus oil fields.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
Too bad that the Allies had actual homing ASW torpedoes operational.
Sure, but so did the germans, the Falke and such could home in on submarines just as well as it could with merchants or warships.

The assorted allied FIDO mines (torpedoes) and such were too slow to actually CATCH the XXI, which is why it's speed was feared.
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
Author
Also, please note that the XXI class was the submarine. Everything else before it were simply submersibles. This doesn't include the fact that it can reload the tubes in mid combat. Every modern submarine is built upon the lessons of the XXI class, and we've seen the results...
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Also, please note that the XXI class was the submarine. Everything else before it were simply submersibles. This doesn't include the fact that it can reload the tubes in mid combat. Every modern submarine is built upon the lessons of the XXI class, and we've seen the results...
Yep, and it still doesn’t do jack shit to win the war when logistics, intel and everything else lacks. It’s amazing to see that people still believe technology wins the war. A Type XXI still dies ignominously when its position is known thanks to Bletchley Park.

Get it into your head: tech doesn’t win wars. Logistics, intelligence, production and training do.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
Yep, and it still doesn’t do jack shit to win the war when logistics, intel and everything else lacks. It’s amazing to see that people still believe technology wins the war. A Type XXI still dies ignominously when its position is known thanks to Bletchley Park.

Get it into your head: tech doesn’t win wars. Logistics, intelligence, production and training do.
I don't think anyone here thinks the XXI will make Germany win, its just that it truly is a pretty neat submarine.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
Oh, it’s neat. It will make for neat coffins to the KM sailors.
Trust me, they won't go down without a fight. ;P

Traditional depth charges and hedgehods will be quite a lot less effective, and they outrun ASW torps of the day.

You'd need to drop a shitload of ordinance to guarantee a kill.

I guess your best bet is to strike when they are snorkelling.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Trust me, they won't go down without a fight. ;P

Traditional depth charges and hedgehods will be quite a lot less effective, and they outrun ASW torps of the day.

You'd need to drop a shitload of ordinance to guarantee a kill.

I guess your best bet is to strike when they are snorkelling.
Or, you know, ambush them and abuse the complete intel domination from the Allies.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
Or, you know, ambush them and abuse the complete intel domination from the Allies.
Ambushing something going 17 knots underwater at deep depth is quite hard. ;V
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Ambushing something going 17 knots underwater at deep depth is quite hard. ;V
Not when you know their position, their heading and their current geographical goal while spamming radar-equipped aircraft and have ASW carriers like crazy. The losses will be slightly lower, but barely. The convoys will still be able to dodge the wolf packs. The subs will be ambushed. Type XXI was one of the very few true German technological innovations during a war where their equipment was qualitatively inferior to everyone else’s, but it still couldn’t change the important parameters of the War.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
Not when you know their position, their heading and their current geographical goal while spamming radar-equipped aircraft and have ASW carriers like crazy. The losses will be slightly lower, but barely. The convoys will still be able to dodge the wolf packs. The subs will be ambushed. Type XXI was one of the very few true German technological innovations during a war where their equipment was qualitatively inferior to everyone else’s, but it still couldn’t change the important parameters of the War.
I mean, the couple of XXI's put into action weren't magically discovered and sunk. ;|

The allies were monsters with inteligence, but they didn't have magic 'discover submarine' spells on their planes.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
I mean, the couple of XXI's put into action weren't magically discovered and sunk. ;|

The allies were monsters with inteligence, but they didn't have magic 'discover submarine' spells on their planes.
They had radars, intel and pretty much everything going for them. The casualty rate for the German submarines was 75 %, for fuck’s sake, even when late-war Type VII and IX got schnorkels and such equipment. The very best result that could be achieved by these submarines? The Iron Curtain would be on the Rhine.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
They had radars, intel and pretty much everything going for them. The casualty rate for the German submarines was 75 %, for fuck’s sake, even when late-war Type VII and IX got schnorkels and such equipment. The very best result that could be achieved by these submarines? The Iron Curtain would be on the Rhine.
The latewar VII and IX's were like kiddy toys to the XXI.

Make no mistake, they die, but god damn they're going to be a pain in the ass to deal with.

We're talking about submarines going like two to three times faster than allies are used to, while being deeper/stronger, and being harder to detect.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
The latewar VII and IX's were like kiddy toys to the XXI.

Make no mistake, they die, but god damn they're going to be a pain in the ass to deal with.

We're talking about submarines going like two to three times faster than allies are used to, while being deeper/stronger, and being harder to detect.
Yep. And that still give their position and goals to the Allies while the Allies can and will spam air assets at the submarines. It’ll just be another phase of increased losses at a time when the US produces so much they can stop giving a shit about subs if they want. Meanwhile, the Soviets are driving West and Robert Oppenheimer is busy in New Mexico. They are an annoyance, nothing more.
 

Lordroel

Well-known member
Yep. they are delivered during January 1943, and also happen to be fully crewed and capable, and will be in full working, not breaking down condition, with top notch build quality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_XXI_submarine
Building 267
Completed 118
Cancelled 785
Planned 1170
The big problem with winning the Battle of the Atlantic becomes finding the convoys. The XXI was capable of finding its own targets out to a distance of around 30 NM using sonar and it could probably hear a battle 60 or even 90 NM away. The best way to use them would have been under radio silence for the whole voyage and that would have been the end of ULTRA. However, it is doubtful that Doenitz would have done that. He would most likely have continued on with all the chit chat, although that may have tipped him off to ULTRA since a lot of XXI would have survived the attempts to sink them enroute and also they would have picked up the attempts to reroute convoys. I would think that given a year, Doenitz would have found ways to minimize the effect of both HF-DF and ULTRA. Since the XXI could have operated in a high threat area, it could have operated close to the western approaches and picked up its targets relatively easily.

This does not answer the question of how many ships get sunk. In order to win the Battle of the Atlantic, the objective would have had to be 15 - 20 million tons per year, which was Allied production plus a modest reduction in the total pool. Historically, the U-boats sank 5.8 million tons in 1942, their best year, out of total Allied losses of 8.2 million tons. The XXI would have had to manage about 3 times that, rather unlikely given only the XXI. If we throw in wire guided torpedoes like Lerche, the numbers start to look better since the XXI can now bite back hard against pursuing ships. And so we find ourselves on that slippery slope of “What ifs”.

The XXI by itself in 1943 would most likely not have resulted in a draw or a German win, but in a longer war. However, it was a vital ingredient in any German draw/win scenario. The other vital ingredients were an earlier appearance of jet aircraft, notably the Me 262, and the death of Hitler by 1943. With the Me262 in control of the air over the Reich in 1943, the XXI doing major damage in the Atlantic and the generals running the war without Hitler’s interference, a draw was quite possible. In this sort of scenario, the Americans would have had a tough time delivering an atomic bomb in the face of German air superiority.
 

aldw

New member
The Me262 would need the HeS 30 turbojets instead of the BMW 003/Jumo 004 engines because it would have been a simpler and better performing engine than either competing engine and would have been out sooner if not for organizational issues.
 

ThatZenoGuy

Residential Zealous Evolved Nano Organism
Banned
The Me262 would need the HeS 30 turbojets instead of the BMW 003/Jumo 004 engines because it would have been a simpler and better performing engine than either competing engine and would have been out sooner if not for organizational issues.
Germany wholly lacked the materials needed for any reliable jet engine for mass production.

If they had the right resources, the options they chose historically would have worked just fine.
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
Author
The Me262 would need the HeS 30 turbojets instead of the BMW 003/Jumo 004 engines because it would have been a simpler and better performing engine than either competing engine and would have been out sooner if not for organizational issues.
Actually the Me-262's design characteristics make sense when you have to literally replace the engine every sortie. They literally can come off with ease. The biggest problem is that early jet engines didn't have the alloys that were needed to resist the heat generated. Most early jet aircraft had similar problems when they first started.
 

aldw

New member
Germany wholly lacked the materials needed for any reliable jet engine for mass production.

If they had the right resources, the options they chose historically would have worked just fine.
Actually the Me-262's design characteristics make sense when you have to literally replace the engine every sortie. They literally can come off with ease. The biggest problem is that early jet engines didn't have the alloys that were needed to resist the heat generated. Most early jet aircraft had similar problems when they first started.
The wiki article says this about the HeS 30:

Of all of the early engines, the HeS 30 was by far the best design. It produced a thrust of 860 kg (1,895 lb), almost equidistant between the BMW 003's 800 kg (1,780 lb) and the Jumo 004's higher 900 kg (1,980 lb), but weighed only 390 kg (860 lb), providing a much better power-to-weight ratio than the dry weights of either the 003 at 562 kg (1,240 lb) or the 004 at 720 kg (1,585 lb). The HeS 30 concept also had better specific fuel consumption and was also smaller in cross-section. It has been said its overall performance was not matched until 1947.
 
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