Ugh, thanks for the nightmare scenario.
Japanese refusal to provide better escorts for their shipping and American technological advances in the field of radar and radar guided weaponry means that this is mostly just a delay of a year or two. Push comes to shove, American can just redeploy the Atlantic fleet to to the Pacific after V-E day, further increasing the overwhelming advantage.
At least, after 1942. 1942 is gonna be a shitty year to be an American sailor.
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This was a Japanese tactical victory outright in OTL.
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The Japanese only had a slim margin of superiority in carrier aircraft, with triple the forces available, they should still have superiority of forces even after the devastation of the attacks on their carriers, which personally I see little reason to doubt they will succeed as OTL. I also don't see those very same men making it back to their carriers.
A 100% or 200% increase in available forces for the IJN for these battles would result in more severe losses, especially in at the Coral Sea. It means Yorktown dies with Lexington. Which leaves just Enterprise and Hornet for Midway.
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And this one was really damned close. Hornet was sunk here, Hornet might not make it this far, and the damage that Enterprise suffered is likely to be fatal.
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I'd honestly say tripling the IJN is excessive for merely evening the score, when simply doubling the amount of force and logistics available could result in several of these losses becoming Japanese victories. But tripling?
If Guadalcanal even occurs, it results in the American force retreating after both the USN and IJN receive a brutal mauling, coming away from it like grown men who had to beat three pitbulls to death with nothing but hands, feet and a good stick. But I doubt it would.
Coral Sea and Midway could very easily end up being total losses for all capital ships involved on the American side, which makes Guadalcanal, as it happened historically, extremely unlikely.
The extra damage from Pearl Harbor, Coral Sea and Midway would delay Guadalcanal for several months, possibly not starting until it originally ended. Thing is, in 1943, all that damage is regenerated by the ships commisioned. Then 1944 makes that problem oh so much worse. So the balance of battles, casualties and intiative is going to seesaw much harder than OTL, with the Japanese slapping off American offensives or making them grind that much harder for longer, and then suddenly overwhelming numbers and advanced radar technology will start turning battles into Marianas Turkey Shoot style slaughters in multiple theaters at once, with multiple concurrent island attacks and sieges in multiple areas everywhere in 1944 and 45. It might even rival the Brusilov Offensive for sheer lethality.