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UK Politics The Brexit thread (or All -not- quiet on the western front)

Wakko

Well-known member
Somewhere, somehow, Macron is seething in a pot of fire and wishing he could just kick the perfidious albions out.
By now everybody feels similarly, but money is only on the 1st place...
 
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Madgunna

Active member
What it wanted all along - UK won't leave. I am 99% convinced that nobody will push UK out of the EU against its own will. No matter how comically it all looks, economically it makes perfect sense.
That sounds a lot like buying a lottery ticket. Right now the EU loses money slowly due to the unstable situation, gambling that pairlament will vote to stay eventually - but the question is how long until the cost outweighs the benefit? Also keep in mind the political capital that is on the line. If the EU waffles for too long, then in the end there will be a decrease in trust in EU promises. They have to show that a red line is truly a red line at some point.

My bet is they already spent all that they wanted to spend back when May asked for an extension. Right now Britain needs to put up or shut up.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
It's happening!

Just kidding. It's totally not happening.

U.K., EU agree to 'great' outline Brexit deal, PM Boris Johnson says
Hours before a summit of all 28 EU national leaders, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Thursday: "We have one. It's a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the U.K., and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted the two sides had struck a "great new deal," and urged U.K. lawmakers to ratify it in a special session on Saturday.
That's a nice announcement. Wonder if it will mean anything more than bravado?
However, immediately complicating matters was Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which didn't waste a minute to say it could not back the outline deal because of provisions for the Irish border.
...
...
"Scotland did not vote for Brexit in any form, and SNP MPs will not vote for Brexit in any form."
...
In a surprising turn of events, Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage is urging lawmakers to reject the tentative deal, saying he would prefer an extension to the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline to be followed by a national election rather than a parliamentary vote in favour of the new terms.
When even the Brexit party hates your fucking Brexit proposal. With hate coming from every other party, all that BoJo can count on is votes from his own party... maybe.
 

Balerion

Well-known member
And parliament has stamped it's feet and demanded another extension. Imagine if the Greek legislature declared that it was going to suspend all debt payments because they thought they were "odious"
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
Pretty sure that the other EU nations will not look on the request seriously either. As it was scheduled, parliament was forcing the extension vote before even considering the proposal itself.

EU: "Will this work? Y/N"
UK: "Extension."
EU: "Is that a no?"
UK: "Just give us more time to prepare a vote." *members of most parties make public statements saying they will never sign*
EU: "Is it too long? Do you need this time to read the proposal?"
UK: "No, we read it already, and made up our minds. We just refuse to hold a vote."
EU: "We will... consider... your extension request."

Brexit may mean Brexit, but Brexit also appears to be a severe form of mental retardation. Strangely enough, BoJo might actually be the sane one in parliament right now since another referendum is off the table and no one will agree to any proposal where the British Empire rises again with the EU as vassals. Crashing out is the more rational outcome.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
What is even happening I dont know no more,,,
"Fuck Superman. All hail Bizarro!"

Technically, the vote was to delay until legislation could be drafted and voted upon that the UK would actually enact the Brexit plan if they choose to accept the plan at a later date. Because saying "Yes, we agree with this proposal and accept." apparently does not mean that they will actually do the thing (as of this particular sitting of parliament).

Yes, they are refusing to vote until they vote to accept the vote as being valid with another set of legislation that they will draft and vote upon. At some point in time. In the future. After an extension, because we all know how hard it is to make legislation that says "if we vote on this thing we actually mean it, and we will follow through with our votes".

If that seems complicated, it is only because it is some horseshit hastily thought up to do nothing but delay making a decision.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
"Fuck Superman. All hail Bizarro!"

Technically, the vote was to delay until legislation could be drafted and voted upon that the UK would actually enact the Brexit plan if they choose to accept the plan at a later date. Because saying "Yes, we agree with this proposal and accept." apparently does not mean that they will actually do the thing (as of this particular sitting of parliament).

Yes, they are refusing to vote until they vote to accept the vote as being valid with another set of legislation that they will draft and vote upon. At some point in time. In the future. After an extension, because we all know how hard it is to make legislation that says "if we vote on this thing we actually mean it, and we will follow through with our votes".

If that seems complicated, it is only because it is some horseshit hastily thought up to do nothing but delay making a decision.
*Blinks*

So the UK Parliament has actually evolved to a closed loop where every vote will result in needs for more votes in the future.

I wonder if we can harness that as an energy source...
 

Alias

Bean Daddy
Moderator
What is the rationale for not voting on this latest Brexit proposal?
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
What is the rationale for not voting on this latest Brexit proposal?
As far as anyone can tell, "You can't make me!" rules apply.

Parliament was called in for a special session to give a final and definitive yes or no vote, either accept the deal or crash out. But some MPs decided to appropriate that session for a second vote just to disrupt that vote and buy more time for... something(?).

Over the last few years it has become clear that there is no (strong) political will to reverse the referendum, or to hold a second referendum on the topic. No one also want to take the blame for accepting a deal that does not favor the UK. Except that there is absolutely no chance that every other country in the EU will take a beating just to please the parliamentarians, so instead they keep getting only offers that will make them look bad. Hence all the rejections and delays.

I don't think there is an end goal for any of this. Just panic that they will be leaving the EU soon one way or the other, and that there is no course that looks to make them come out looking good. Maybe a forlorn hope that the EU will take pity on them and cut a better deal (not happening), or that they can at least place the blame on BoJo for everything.

Originally they were only going to vote for an extra day to review the proposal, but it somehow ended up becoming "Uh... get us an extension so we can... do... a thing. Um, vote! Yes, we can vote to make the upcoming vote binding if we only have a few more weeks. Or months".

As far as anything I have seen or heard at least. Sheer panic with a touch of stubbornness to not be forced into making a final decision.
 

t-dugong

Beach bum, Esq.
Well, it seems like the Parliament learned a form of filibustering (or whatever is appropriate). Sigh.
 

Wakko

Well-known member

StolenMadWolf

Well-known member
Maybe what they need is an old style military coup and the colonial era would have come a full circle.
Sound's more like the Commonwealth coming back.

A Lord Protector instead of a Prime Minister again? That's going to send shockwaves running hard enough that several generations of British leader's are going to be rolling in their graves.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
New day, new challenges, same as the old challenges.

With just 10 days left until the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, the divorce is again in disarray as U.K. politicians argue over whether to leave with a deal, exit without a deal or hold another referendum.

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow said a vote should not be allowed on Monday as the same issue had been discussed on Saturday when opponents turned Johnson's big Brexit day into a humiliation.
...
Bercow said the government could still secure ratification for the Brexit deal by Oct. 31 if it had the numbers in Parliament.

But the Speaker's decision means that the government will have to try to push on with the legislation needed for ratification that opponents are plotting to wreck with amendments that would destroy Johnson's deal.
How to translate all of this so it makes a lick of sense? Difficult, but I will try.

The extension was asked for since parliament wanted to first draft legislation agreeing to withdraw from the EU if they accept a deal. Stupid, but Brexit is stupid, and we have discussed this all before.

What wasn't included in the quote I gave was the government's plan to hold a vote on the withdrawal agreement inside of three days. Special note is that the legislation has not even been written yet. What was in the quote was the clear intent of many parties to sink this legislation by adding contingencies and amendments to the bill so as to make it impossible to ratify the Brexit deal. That it is a rushed bill that no one is yet able to see makes it even more controversial and likely to fail.

To avoid this failure, and to try and force parliament to put their votes on the record as to whether or not they accept the Brexit deal, BoJo has tried to put the matter to vote. Except that Bercow says that parliamentary rules mean that he cannot present the same deal over and over again until it gets the result he wants.

Problem with this ruling is that Bercow has undermined it by saying that it actually can be presented if BoJo gets enough votes for it to pass, but they can't take the vote to find out if it will pass or not. Also problematic is that this is a ruling to stop the bill form being presented over and over again, but the Saturday session actually never voted on the deal since it was preempted by this new silly legislation plan to make a law that says that agreeing to the Brexit plan means that they actually will follow the plan if they agree.

Shorter version: the extra and unnecessary bill that is being set up to fail spectacularly will have to go forward before parliament gets the chance to vote again on whether or not to accept the Brexit plan, even though there has been no first vote on this particular plan. The bill is being fast-tracked, further harming the chances of it succeeding. Another extension has been asked for by BoJo, but in a way that indicates that he himself does not want an extension, and the rushed bill is to make the extension moot, even though it is almost certainly not going to pass. The rest of the EU is confused, and has not decided whether or not to grant an extension, mostly because all of the UK's games have made it unclear if the extension is wanted, warranted, or will accomplish anything since parliament is trying to sink the withdrawal bill, and by extension the Brexit deal, with all their might.

So it is still the same, but kind of different, like seeing a chipped and worn coat of ugly paint and fixing it by throwing a thinned-out coat of the same ugly paint over top without bothering to remove the existing chips and wear.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
Today is a momentous day in which parliament decided in principle that they will consider the Brexit plan that is on the table.

They then turned around and said that they still needed another extension so they could read that plan, and that they refused to vote upon it until they have had that time.

BTW, if you think that is actually progress, the entire plan is only about 150 pages long. With the sizes of staff that MPs have to sift through this sort of thing, that isn't actually a monumental task to accomplish in a few days.

On the EU side, Donald Tusk says that he would like to grant that extension. Actual officials from the EU nations are pointing out that another delay is not really justified since they still have until the end of the month to debate and vote for or against the plan.

Short version: a lot of things happened, resulting in nothing actually changing (or promising to change) yet again.
 

Madgunna

Active member
I'm still seeing a hard Brexit as likely. Perhaps not on purpose, but by cutting it so close it might as well be.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
Great news, everybody! Another extension, this time until 31 January.

Also keep in mind that BoJo is trying to negotiate an election date for 12 December. It might not have enough support, but for some reason there might be enough support with opposition parties for 9 December.

Pretty sure that he is trying to get defeated so someone else can finish negotiations. Or, if another party gets in power on the promise of a second referendum, he can pout a lot and point fingers because Brexit means Brexit. Losing an election would end his time as party leader, but he could at least use that result to become a voice of resistance and maintain his own political career.
 

Lerticus

Senile Old Coot
Communism
Free to speak his mind now. Or: the Day the Cow Mooed.

U.K.'s Bercow speaks out on Trump, calls Brexit a 'historic mistake'
He thinks leaving the European Union is Britain's "biggest foreign policy blunder" since the Second World War, an error that will leave the country weakened economically and diplomatically.
...
Bercow says at the time "there was intense controversy about [Trump's] alleged sexism, racism and disparagement of an independent judiciary, and it was my strong sense that he hadn't earned the honour of being invited to address both houses of Parliament."

He said Trump's behaviour since then had only reinforced his conviction that he'd made the right call.
...
"I am something of a Marmite character," he said, referring to the tangy British breakfast spread that has a love-it-or-hate-it reputation. "But, you know, can I bear the burden of being regarded as a Marmite character with stoicism and fortitude? I think I can."
Starting off with blasting Brexit and Trumpy, while also mentioning that he has a book deal. Might be a good read.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
*Shrug*

The pre-election kicked off with BJ accusing his opponents of being Stalin and Mr Waffling My Feet Corbyn being roasted for the cases of Anti-semitism in his party.

All in all I full expect BJ to sweep the election and proceed to make an even worse mess of things.

At least the Brexit Saga will end that way as it was always meant to be. A slow but irrevocable descent to chaos and insanity.

At least now we know the gendre of this timeline. Horror, with a side order of Black Comedy.
 
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