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On Gene Editing & Moore's Law

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#1
Right, I remember why I don't like you.

You're psychotic.

Genocide Man territory jesus fuck.
Sadly, fiction has ironically become reality one way or another given modern human history. Given humanity's oh-so-long rap sheet when it comes to inter-ethnic conflict, I wouldn't be surprised that things go down that road. We've got way too many ideologically charged 'idiots' and madmen who want to 'bring humanity down to size' and 'make humanity humble', to 'settling scores' between ethnic groups, or the more common 'exterminate [insert ethnic group here], utopia happens' line of thought.

Keeping nation-states actually stable is beyond brutally hard if enough idiots can whip up horrible syth-plagues or worse every few days or less. The US Intelligence Community puts the ability to create synthetic plagues and gene-editing proliferation on the top end of it's watch lists. Operation DARK WINTER played with a 'worst-case' planned plague scenario back in 2001/2002, and have planned extensive countermeasures just in case it actually happened. Hell, you don't have to infect humans either, to really do some damage you can simply whip up something that breaks a binome (called 'binome crashers') and let mass starvation do the rest.

We've literally got the tools to eliminate disease, but those same tools can be easily re-purposed into weapons.
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#3
The issue is that the tools needed to make those things, let alone make them specific enough to target certain ethnic groups, is fucking expensive. Like holy hell is it expensive.

And I really don't think we can actually target ethnicities, cell structures are too similar.
Well, if you go to the linked 'US IC puts Gene-editing on the top end of it's watch lists' thread (with the article in question as well), you'll discover that specific targeting has already arrived and is decreasing in pricetag thanks to Moore's Law. Specifically it's the Gene Drive technology that allows for 'ethnic targeting bullshit'. Right now gene-editing tech is only available to minor biotech organizations and is only going to drop even further.

Given our world, I only see megadeaths coming one way or another before things stabilize and go for the better.
 

Vyor

Well-known member
#4
and is decreasing in pricetag thanks to Moore's Law.
wut

That's... that's still not how moore's law works. All moore's law is talking about is transistor density... which has literally nothing to do with performance.

pecifically it's the Gene Drive technology that allows for 'ethnic targeting bullshit'. Right now gene-editing tech is only available to minor biotech organizations and is only going to drop even further.
That isn't possible. Any disease that targets on those lines will mutate and target everyone else within a single generation. It does not work.

There is an actual threat in bioweapons, there has always been, but that's why those labs are under strict control.
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#5
wut

That's... that's still not how moore's law works. All moore's law is talking about is transistor density... which has literally nothing to do with performance.
Actually it does, Moore's Law is far more widespread than you would initially realize. I would say that too but, yeah I found out it applies to everything technological. Not to mention that a lot of modern gene-engineering tech relies on computer systems.
That isn't possible. Any disease that targets on those lines will mutate and target everyone else within a single generation. It does not work.
From what I understand, it depends on how 'stable' the pathogen is...
There is an actual threat in bioweapons, there has always been, but that's why those labs are under strict control.
Eh, not really? The technology has proliferated quite extensively since it's first inception.
 

Vyor

Well-known member
#6
Actually it does, Moore's Law is far more widespread than you would initially realize. I would say that too but, yeah I found out it applies to everything technological. Not to mention that a lot of modern gene-engineering tech relies on computer systems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Not really.

From what I understand, it depends on how 'stable' the pathogen is...
The only stable pathogens we know of target one branch of cell structure, ie, plant cells. Otherwise? Ya, good luck with that.

Eh, not really? The technology has proliferated quite extensively since it's first inception.
It requires very specific expertise and licensing to be able to work on gene mods for... anything tbh.
 

Vyor

Well-known member
#11
I note that Moore's Law has held steady for the past 10 years, even seeming to be on track right now. Will probably slow down after 5/3nm though.
 
#12
Depends on who you talk to, as labels tend to be subjective than objective.

Then again, a scientific 'law' becomes a law when a consistent pattern emerges from the data.
Moore's Law is not a law:
Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend and not a physical or natural law.
Depends on who you talk to, as labels tend to be subjective than objective.
Scientific terminology isn't subjective.
 

Ravan

Well-known member
#17
A scientific (physical law) law is basically something that can be shown/proven with pure math, which can then be tested by observation. Gravity is a law, elasticity is a law, etc... because we can show exactly how it works mathematically. Moore’s law is not one. This does not stop it from being correct, but it can’t actually be proven/disproven until we reach the estimated time period.
 
#18
By the time we can make bioweapons on a whim, we'll have enough control of biology to undo the damage, so all the worrying is pretty pointless.

We've seen how bioweapons are currently, and that's pretty much pointless, the Russians didn't get much past 'Smallpox but slightly better', while the Japanese Terrorist group composed of doctors spent years on it and declared it as a trap to waste their time, and then decided creating and using Sarin was easier and more effective.
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#19
By the time we can make bioweapons on a whim, we'll have enough control of biology to undo the damage, so all the worrying is pretty pointless.
Actually... no. That's a bit of a fallacy. Offense (including bioweapons) have beaten defense for the most part. Many defensive measures aren't 'stop it cold' anymore, they're mostly 'slow it down'. ... and you've forgotten that we've already at the point we can make bioweapons on a whim. It's just the tech hasn't proliferated thanks to cost reduction yet.
We've seen how bioweapons are currently, and that's pretty much pointless, the Russians didn't get much past 'Smallpox but slightly better', while the Japanese Terrorist group composed of doctors spent years on it and declared it as a trap to waste their time, and then decided creating and using Sarin was easier and more effective.
The Russians and aforementioned Japanese terrorist group developed theirs with tools that aren't using computers and all sorts of techniques to bypass the lengthy period of breeding-analyzing-harvesting-augmenting-repeat process that dominated bioweapons for over a century. This sort of technology and techniques are now available to minor biotech corporations.
 
#20
Actually... no. That's a bit of a fallacy. Offense (including bioweapons) have beaten defense for the most part. Many defensive measures aren't 'stop it cold' anymore, they're mostly 'slow it down'. ... and you've forgotten that we've already at the point we can make bioweapons on a whim. It's just the tech hasn't proliferated thanks to cost reduction yet.

The Russians and aforementioned Japanese terrorist group developed theirs with tools that aren't using computers and all sorts of techniques to bypass the lengthy period of breeding-analyzing-harvesting-augmenting-repeat process that dominated bioweapons for over a century. This sort of technology and techniques are now available to minor biotech corporations.
Prove it, where is the overwhelming superiority of modern bioweapons?
 

Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#21
Prove it, where is the overwhelming superiority of modern bioweapons?
When the US IC goes 'CRISPER Tech is WMD grade', then you have to take notice. Then add the fact that gene-drives are pretty much the sort of thing to create 'targeted bioweapon' bullshit...

We're pretty close to having the Dollar Flu (please remember, even though Tom Clancy is a bit too conservative for many's tastes, he has a nack for making predictions on various tech based on suspicions, what is already being researched, and even simple projections... and oddly enough this continued after his passing) happening and most people aren't even aware of it yet.
 
#22
The moniker of scientific "law" is basically meaningless. Newton's "Law" of Universal Gravitation is actually wrong and inferior to Einstein's "Theory" of General Relativity.

Also, making bacteria do what you want them to is really hard, CRISPR or no. CRISPR is really easy to use, but you aren't actually going to figure out what the gene edits to make a super-pathogen are without high-level laboratory equipment and resources.

Actually... no. That's a bit of a fallacy. Offense (including bioweapons) have beaten defense for the most part. Many defensive measures aren't 'stop it cold' anymore, they're mostly 'slow it down'. ... and you've forgotten that we've already at the point we can make bioweapons on a whim. It's just the tech hasn't proliferated thanks to cost reduction yet.

The Russians and aforementioned Japanese terrorist group developed theirs with tools that aren't using computers and all sorts of techniques to bypass the lengthy period of breeding-analyzing-harvesting-augmenting-repeat process that dominated bioweapons for over a century. This sort of technology and techniques are now available to minor biotech corporations.
But that's still basically where we're at? Not just with bioweapons, but with bio-engineering in general. We don't really understand enough about immunity and infection to forgo the trial-and-error phase.
 
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Aaron Fox

SB's Minor Junker Descendant and Hunter of Nazis
#23
But that's still basically where we're at? Not just with bioweapons, but with bio-engineering in general. We don't really understand enough about immunity and infection to forgo the trial-and-error phase.
We don't really know at this point, as the bio-engineering community is rather tight lipped on their toys.
 
#24
We don't really know at this point, as the bio-engineering community is rather tight lipped on their toys.
They really aren't. There just isn't that much to report. Genomics as a science is only about 2 decades old. Hell, only relatively recently have we discovered that non-coding DNA probably isn't junk DNA at all, and then there's the entire category of epigenetic phenomena. We've barely scratched the surface in terms of understanding genetic interactions. We're at least decades out from being able to reliably predict the effects of changing more than a handful of genes, even in a bacteria. And that means any attempts at creating a super-bug are going to require human testing. I highly doubt that there are any secret government programs that are decades ahead of the public cutting-edge here.
 

IndyFront

Speaks in Calabi–Yau manifolds
#25
Bio-weapons have existed since the wars with Native peoples in America, yes? The blankets? Remember the blankets? (Can't remember what they put on them at the moment). And they have likely existed long before. I do think, however, that the growth in technological warfare is replacing biowarfare, but it is by no means irrelevant (yet).

EDIT: Here

Rudimentary forms of biological warfare have been practiced since antiquity.[10] During the 6th century BC, the Assyrians poisoned enemy wells with a fungus that would render the enemy delirious. In 1346, the bodies of Mongol warriors of the Golden Horde who had died of plague were thrown over the walls of the besieged Crimean city of Kaffa. Specialists disagree over whether this operation may have been responsible for the spread of the Black Death into Europe, Near East and North Africa, resulting in the killing of approximately 25 million Europeans.[11][12][13][14]

The British Army are alleged to have used smallpox against Native Americans during the Siege of Fort Pitt in 1763.[15][16][17] An outbreak that left as many as one hundred Native Americans dead in Ohio Country was reported in 1764. The spread of the disease weakened the natives' resistance to the British troops led by Henry Bouquet. It is not clear, however, whether the smallpox was a result of the Fort Pitt incident or the virus was already present among the Delaware people.[18][19] It has been claimed that the British Marinesused smallpox in New South Wales in 1789.[20]

By 1900 the germ theory and advances in bacteriology brought a new level of sophistication to the techniques for possible use of bio-agents in war. Biological sabotage—in the form of anthrax and glanders—was undertaken on behalf of the Imperial Germangovernment during World War I (1914–1918), with indifferent results.[21] The Geneva Protocol of 1925 prohibited the use of chemical weapons and biological weapons.[22]


***

In Britain, the 1950s saw the weaponization of plague, brucellosis, tularemia and later equine encephalomyelitis and vaccinia viruses, but the programme was unilaterally cancelled in 1956. The United States Army Biological Warfare Laboratories weaponized anthrax, tularemia, brucellosis, Q-fever and others.[37]

In 1969, the UK and the Warsaw Pact, separately, introduced proposals to the UN to ban biological weapons, and US President Richard Nixonterminated production of biological weapons, allowing only scientific research for defensive measures. The Biological and Toxin Weapons Conventionwas signed by the US, UK, USSR and other nations, as a ban on "development, production and stockpiling of microbes or their poisonous products except in amounts necessary for protective and peaceful research" in 1972. However, the Soviet Union continued research and production of massive offensive biological weapons in a program called Biopreparat, despite having signed the convention.[38] By 2011, 165 countries had signed the treaty and none are proven—though nine are still suspected[39]—to possess offensive BW programs.
[39]

And: History of biological warfare
 
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