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On Gene Editing & Moore's Law

Aaron Fox

Active member
#1
Right, I remember why I don't like you.

You're psychotic.

Genocide Man territory jesus fuck.
Sadly, fiction has ironically become reality one way or another given modern human history. Given humanity's oh-so-long rap sheet when it comes to inter-ethnic conflict, I wouldn't be surprised that things go down that road. We've got way too many ideologically charged 'idiots' and madmen who want to 'bring humanity down to size' and 'make humanity humble', to 'settling scores' between ethnic groups, or the more common 'exterminate [insert ethnic group here], utopia happens' line of thought.

Keeping nation-states actually stable is beyond brutally hard if enough idiots can whip up horrible syth-plagues or worse every few days or less. The US Intelligence Community puts the ability to create synthetic plagues and gene-editing proliferation on the top end of it's watch lists. Operation DARK WINTER played with a 'worst-case' planned plague scenario back in 2001/2002, and have planned extensive countermeasures just in case it actually happened. Hell, you don't have to infect humans either, to really do some damage you can simply whip up something that breaks a binome (called 'binome crashers') and let mass starvation do the rest.

We've literally got the tools to eliminate disease, but those same tools can be easily re-purposed into weapons.
 
#2
The issue is that the tools needed to make those things, let alone make them specific enough to target certain ethnic groups, is fucking expensive. Like holy hell is it expensive.

And I really don't think we can actually target ethnicities, cell structures are too similar.
 

Aaron Fox

Active member
#3
The issue is that the tools needed to make those things, let alone make them specific enough to target certain ethnic groups, is fucking expensive. Like holy hell is it expensive.

And I really don't think we can actually target ethnicities, cell structures are too similar.
Well, if you go to the linked 'US IC puts Gene-editing on the top end of it's watch lists' thread (with the article in question as well), you'll discover that specific targeting has already arrived and is decreasing in pricetag thanks to Moore's Law. Specifically it's the Gene Drive technology that allows for 'ethnic targeting bullshit'. Right now gene-editing tech is only available to minor biotech organizations and is only going to drop even further.

Given our world, I only see megadeaths coming one way or another before things stabilize and go for the better.
 
#4
and is decreasing in pricetag thanks to Moore's Law.
wut

That's... that's still not how moore's law works. All moore's law is talking about is transistor density... which has literally nothing to do with performance.

pecifically it's the Gene Drive technology that allows for 'ethnic targeting bullshit'. Right now gene-editing tech is only available to minor biotech organizations and is only going to drop even further.
That isn't possible. Any disease that targets on those lines will mutate and target everyone else within a single generation. It does not work.

There is an actual threat in bioweapons, there has always been, but that's why those labs are under strict control.
 

Aaron Fox

Active member
#5
wut

That's... that's still not how moore's law works. All moore's law is talking about is transistor density... which has literally nothing to do with performance.
Actually it does, Moore's Law is far more widespread than you would initially realize. I would say that too but, yeah I found out it applies to everything technological. Not to mention that a lot of modern gene-engineering tech relies on computer systems.
That isn't possible. Any disease that targets on those lines will mutate and target everyone else within a single generation. It does not work.
From what I understand, it depends on how 'stable' the pathogen is...
There is an actual threat in bioweapons, there has always been, but that's why those labs are under strict control.
Eh, not really? The technology has proliferated quite extensively since it's first inception.
 
#6
Actually it does, Moore's Law is far more widespread than you would initially realize. I would say that too but, yeah I found out it applies to everything technological. Not to mention that a lot of modern gene-engineering tech relies on computer systems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Not really.

From what I understand, it depends on how 'stable' the pathogen is...
The only stable pathogens we know of target one branch of cell structure, ie, plant cells. Otherwise? Ya, good luck with that.

Eh, not really? The technology has proliferated quite extensively since it's first inception.
It requires very specific expertise and licensing to be able to work on gene mods for... anything tbh.
 
#11
I note that Moore's Law has held steady for the past 10 years, even seeming to be on track right now. Will probably slow down after 5/3nm though.
 
#12
Depends on who you talk to, as labels tend to be subjective than objective.

Then again, a scientific 'law' becomes a law when a consistent pattern emerges from the data.
Moore's Law is not a law:
Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend and not a physical or natural law.
Depends on who you talk to, as labels tend to be subjective than objective.
Scientific terminology isn't subjective.
 
#17
A scientific (physical law) law is basically something that can be shown/proven with pure math, which can then be tested by observation. Gravity is a law, elasticity is a law, etc... because we can show exactly how it works mathematically. Moore’s law is not one. This does not stop it from being correct, but it can’t actually be proven/disproven until we reach the estimated time period.
 
#18
By the time we can make bioweapons on a whim, we'll have enough control of biology to undo the damage, so all the worrying is pretty pointless.

We've seen how bioweapons are currently, and that's pretty much pointless, the Russians didn't get much past 'Smallpox but slightly better', while the Japanese Terrorist group composed of doctors spent years on it and declared it as a trap to waste their time, and then decided creating and using Sarin was easier and more effective.
 
#19
By the time we can make bioweapons on a whim, we'll have enough control of biology to undo the damage, so all the worrying is pretty pointless.
Actually... no. That's a bit of a fallacy. Offense (including bioweapons) have beaten defense for the most part. Many defensive measures aren't 'stop it cold' anymore, they're mostly 'slow it down'. ... and you've forgotten that we've already at the point we can make bioweapons on a whim. It's just the tech hasn't proliferated thanks to cost reduction yet.
We've seen how bioweapons are currently, and that's pretty much pointless, the Russians didn't get much past 'Smallpox but slightly better', while the Japanese Terrorist group composed of doctors spent years on it and declared it as a trap to waste their time, and then decided creating and using Sarin was easier and more effective.
The Russians and aforementioned Japanese terrorist group developed theirs with tools that aren't using computers and all sorts of techniques to bypass the lengthy period of breeding-analyzing-harvesting-augmenting-repeat process that dominated bioweapons for over a century. This sort of technology and techniques are now available to minor biotech corporations.
 
#20
Actually... no. That's a bit of a fallacy. Offense (including bioweapons) have beaten defense for the most part. Many defensive measures aren't 'stop it cold' anymore, they're mostly 'slow it down'. ... and you've forgotten that we've already at the point we can make bioweapons on a whim. It's just the tech hasn't proliferated thanks to cost reduction yet.

The Russians and aforementioned Japanese terrorist group developed theirs with tools that aren't using computers and all sorts of techniques to bypass the lengthy period of breeding-analyzing-harvesting-augmenting-repeat process that dominated bioweapons for over a century. This sort of technology and techniques are now available to minor biotech corporations.
Prove it, where is the overwhelming superiority of modern bioweapons?
 

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