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Hungary infuriates EU with block on €18B Ukraine aid

IndyFront

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Decided this could go in its own thread since it isn't specific to Eastern Europe


"Our financial, our humanitarian support [to Ukraine] within the framework of winter aid is not a normal European matter where people play poker and negotiate back and forth about financial resources," the German foreign minister told reporters in response to a question from POLITICO about whether Hungary was trying to strongarm the EU into making concessions in the rule-of-law dispute.

See also

 

t-dugong

Beach bum, Esq.
Huh. The fuck is Orbán up to now? Looking for fresh source of...what do Eastern Europe call graft money (I don't think it's kompromat but I can't think of anything)?
 
Hungary Threatens Slovak Territorial Integrity

IndyFront

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Scottty

Well-known member
(Looks at map)

(looks at old maps)

Even if Poland got back all the clay that the Soviets took from them at the end of WWII, there would still be Slovakia in between them and Hungary.
Slovakia gets their land back too?

And then there's quite a bit of current Poland that was once part of Germany: Silesia, Pommerania, East Prussia...

There's a reason that "this was once ours so we should get it back" is considered a "let's not go there" in polite diplomatic circles.
 
EU Funding Pressure Must Weaken Orban, Top Czech Lawmaker Says

IndyFront

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EU Funding Pressure Must Weaken Orban, Top Czech Lawmaker Says



Marketa Pekarova Adamova, the speaker of the Czech Republic's lower house of parliament, urged the EU to follow through with its threat to halt funding over concerns with corruption and democratic backsliding. Hungary is approaching a "breaking point" as Orban pursues aims that conflict with the EU values, she said in an interview.

If anyone can get access to the rest of that article it would be much appreciated

Also it looks like Hungary has convened its defense council over both Ukraine AND Russia




Kind of a spooky/odd parallel to WWI Bulgaria, which distrusted both the Entente and the Alliance simultaneously
 
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IndyFront

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Why Viktor Orban won't help Ukraine

IndyFront

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Why Viktor Orban won't help Ukraine

But the EU's threat to suspend about €7.5 billion in funds to Hungary may not be the only reason for Orbán's reluctance to send aid. There are approximately 150,000 ethnic Hungarians living in the Zakarpattia region of Ukraine in the Carpathian Mountains. Though many have fled since the Russian invasion, a significant number have remained.

From the Hungarian perspective, its minorities here have been threatened not just by the potential for a Russian takeover, but also by the 'Ukrainisation' drive of Kyiv authorities. At the beginning of October a statue in the city of Mukachevo depicting the Turul bird, a Hungarian national symbol, was replaced by the Ukrainian coat of arms in a move which angered Budapest officials. In addition, the use of the Hungarian language in schools has been restricted and, in December 2020, the SBU (the Ukrainian Secret Service) raided a charity when videos circulated online of councillors singing the Hungarian national anthem.

Ukrainians, however, will note Orbán's cordial relations with Putin and the bombastic anti-sanctions poster campaign run by the Fidesz government, which has seen Hungary covered in depictions of a Brussels 'sanctions bomb' said to be ruining the country's economy. Earlier this year Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the European Council, "Everyone knows exactly who in the EU is against humanity and common sense, who does nothing for the peace of Ukraine. This must end, and Europe can no longer listen to Budapest's excuses."

The situation in this region has caused a big push for rearmament in Hungary, the plans for which were outlined by Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczk, the country's Minister for Defence. Asked just how far Hungary was prepared to go to protect the interests of its minorities in Ukraine, Szalay-Bobrovniczky said, "Very far […] Protecting their interests is part of our defence doctrine. But we respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine."

WTF? I was not even aware of half of this.
 

t-dugong

Beach bum, Esq.
Why are you so surprised? Eastern Europe had lots of tension based on ethnicity. It's not a homogenous society, for all they want to portray it that way.
 

IndyFront

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Scottty

Well-known member
Why are you so surprised? Eastern Europe had lots of tension based on ethnicity. It's not a homogenous society, for all they want to portray it that way.

What we've seen in the past few decades is a pattern of multi-ethnic states breaking up into smaller, mono-ethnic ones. Yugoslavia being the poster-boy of a country that was a ticking bomb of ethnic strife from the moment it was put together after WW1.
The Baltic states being so keen to get out of the Soviet Union as soon as it became possible being another example.
 

IndyFront

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What we've seen in the past few decades is a pattern of multi-ethnic states breaking up into smaller, mono-ethnic ones. Yugoslavia being the poster-boy of a country that was a ticking bomb of ethnic strife from the moment it was put together after WW1.
The Baltic states being so keen to get out of the Soviet Union as soon as it became possible being another example.
Well there's also the fact that Yugoslavia was a dictatorship and those ethnic groups never really liked one another to begin with, they were just more afraid of Tito than they were of each other and then he kicked the bucket and Yugoslavia un-Yugoslavia'd

To be on topic:


BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary's top diplomat traveled to Russia on Monday to take part in an international forum on nuclear energy, underscoring his country's persistently close ties with Moscow amid the war in Ukraine.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Well there's also the fact that Yugoslavia was a dictatorship and those ethnic groups never really liked one another to begin with, they were just more afraid of Tito than they were of each other and then he kicked the bucket and Yugoslavia un-Yugoslavia'd

To be on topic:


Well one wouldn't want to miss an international forum on nuclear energy just because there happened to be a war on.
 

IndyFront

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Well one wouldn't want to miss an international forum on nuclear energy just because there happened to be a war on.
Yeah but doesn't the West have their own? The EU and NATO shouldn't be so nonchalant about losing Hungary to Russia and its gaggle of morons, autocrats and war criminals. Pretty sure the Hungarian populace - even if pro-Orban - isn't necessarily pro-Russian. I could be wrong though.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Yeah but doesn't the West have their own?

Good question.
If we want cheap and environment-friendly electricity available to everyone, you and I know that nuclear power is the way.
But if the Greentards in the West get their way, electric power will be a luxury that only the very rich can afford.

The EU and NATO shouldn't be so nonchalant about losing Hungary to Russia and its gaggle of morons, autocrats and war criminals.

Indeed.
Here's my take on it:
1) That is what on the way to happening. And Turkey too, most likely.
2) The people at the top of the EU and NATO are not nonchalant about it - they are oblivious. That a former Warsaw Pact country might end up deciding that the grass hasn't turned out to be greener on the other side of the fence after all, or that being part of "the West" comes at too high a price-tag, is not something that their minds are able to consider.
Because everyone wants to be part of the West, surely?

Pretty sure the Hungarian populace - even if pro-Orban - isn't necessarily pro-Russian. I could be wrong though.

I'd imagine that a Hungarian nationalist cares mostly there about what is best for his own people. The Soviet occupation of their land is probably not something they remember fondly - but even there, they might be looking at it in terms of "remember what happened to us the last time we were part of a European alliance that went to war with Russia? It didn't work out too well."
 

folti

Well-known member
Hungarian MPs now calling for border adjustments
Slovakia: *Laughs in Ukraine*
Toroczkai is a well known far-right revanchist, but neither he, nor his party holds actual any power.

They are effectively a splinter party of Jobbik, made up of people who didn't like Jobbik's attempt to move away from the not-so-crypto fascist fringe. Funding is sketchy, either astroturfed by Orbán or by Putin, or both, most glaring indicator of funded by Orbán is that while other opposition parties barely get airtime in state media, they get all the airtime not reserved for Orbán's p
Yeah but doesn't the West have their own? The EU and NATO shouldn't be so nonchalant about losing Hungary to Russia and its gaggle of morons, autocrats and war criminals.
They can't lose Hungary to Russia, or any other authoritarian power. It's impossible both geographically and economically.

Economy wise Hungary is even more dependent on the EU, especially on the fortune of the Germany carmakers than it was before Orbán got into power. Same with the various EU dole money they are fighting over since the COVID relief programs got announced. And it's all Orbán's work, no matter howuch his propaganda establishment screams about sovereignty and being a better place that the "decadent and decaying West" ™️

Orbán can try to leave the EU and NATO, but it'd make all the economic problems worse, while he's been suddenly surrounded by rather agnostic countries, except Serbia, but lol good luck with the sick man of the Balkans, while his biggest backer Putin couldn't help anymore due to sanctions, and his overtures to China have been so unsuccessful, that his presence is barely registers on China.
Pretty sure the Hungarian populace - even if pro-Orban - isn't necessarily pro-Russian. I could be wrong though.
It's a bit complicated. The biggest voters for Orbán are the old people, who are often alone and atomized, have a bit of nostalgia for their youth (back in the commie era), and often lack the mental tools of dealing with propaganda coming from long trusted media sources (like the state media that was rather impartial after 1989, turned back into propaganda oulets) and the rural populations, who range from extremely impoverished and undereducated, so can't afford to get better information and whose votes can be bought by food handouts, and a thin middle class whose existence relies on agriculture and agriculture related businesses that can be controlled through grants, and directed anti-corruption methods against people the regime don't like.

Apart from that, even most fidesz voters are rather pro-eu and die to a lot of as a lot of people hdid or know someone who emigrated to the EU fir work either permanently or seasonally, they can get alternative information through them about the conditions on the west that more and more sharply contrasts the official propaganda.
 

IndyFront

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They can't lose Hungary to Russia, or any other authoritarian power. It's impossible both geographically and economically.

Economy wise Hungary is even more dependent on the EU, especially on the fortune of the Germany carmakers than it was before Orbán got into power. Same with the various EU dole money they are fighting over since the COVID relief programs got announced. And it's all Orbán's work, no matter howuch his propaganda establishment screams about sovereignty and being a better place that the "decadent and decaying West" ™️

Orbán can try to leave the EU and NATO, but it'd make all the economic problems worse, while he's been suddenly surrounded by rather agnostic countries, except Serbia, but lol good luck with the sick man of the Balkans, while his biggest backer Putin couldn't help anymore due to sanctions, and his overtures to China have been so unsuccessful, that his presence is barely registers on China.
Oh they most certainly can. Look at Bulgaria during WWI. Everyone was so sure they'd side with the Russians against the Ottoman Empire, but what ended up happening? History. And no, Orban doesn't have to try to leave the EU and NATO to be lost to Russia. The EU needs to start cracking down on Hungary, hard, or they're in for a rude awakening. Dear liberals, this isn't the end of history, history is everywhere, and it's going to come knocking sooner or later. Or in fact, it already has.
 

IndyFront

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EU! WAKE THE FUCK UP! This guy is not to be underestimated or downplayed as a "wee lil spat", we saw what Russia did in Ukraine, people downplayed that as "Russia's not going to invade! A European land war is impossible in this day and age" Well, Putin certainly proved that NOTHING in the realm of geopolitics is impossible and you downplay it at your own peril.

So he's a politician who says things, but that's about it?
Putin was just a politician who says things, until he wasn't
 
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IndyFront

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So he's a politician who says things, but that's about it?
Putin was just a politician who says things, until he wasn't
 

folti

Well-known member
Oh they most certainly can. Look at Bulgaria during WWI. Everyone was so sure they'd side with the Russians against the Ottoman Empire, but what ended up happening? History. And no, Orban doesn't have to try to leave the EU and NATO to be lost to Russia. The EU needs to start cracking down on Hungary, hard, or they're in for a rude awakening. Dear liberals, this isn't the end of history, history is everywhere, and it's going to come knocking sooner or later. Or in fact, it already has.
They are cracking down on him as fast as the EU rules allow, and apart from that, Orban is isolated heavily both in the EU and NATO, and what looks worse, he apparently lost his sense of finding the cracks among the EU members to exploit for his own goals, and not even realizing it, because he fell to the dictator trap, and there is nobody around him to tell him the truth anymore. And of course, he lost his biggest protectors in the EU with the departure of Merkel, and the Juncker led previous EU Commission being replaced by the von der Leyen led one. And the economic situation, which is the biggest thing that can undermine his credibility among Hungarians si pretty bad, and going worse every month, and he can't do anything about it, apart from trying to blast more and more empty propaganda.

EU! WAKE THE FUCK UP! This guy is not to be underestimated or downplayed as a "wee lil spat", we saw what Russia did in Ukraine, people downplayed that as "Russia's not going to invade! A European land war is impossible in this day and age" Well, Putin certainly proved that NOTHING in the realm of geopolitics is impossible and you downplay it at your own peril.
Orban does these kind of stunts for domestic audience, foreign reactions be damned. It doesn't mean, that he'd try to do anything over to anyone nearby, quite simply because they are either NATO members, way stronger than Hungarian military (yep, that's Ukraine), or fellow outcasts like Serbia.
Putin was just a politician who says things, until he wasn't
Nope, Putin had the backing of influental power brokers from the moment he got into big boy politics in Moscow. Toroczkay and his party has nothing of such, and they are just a fringe party that might get 10% of votes in a free elections (Hungarian elections are not free, the rules are favoring Orban), because they are that toxic to most people. Even worse, getting associated with them in the past turned out to be a kiss of death to Jobbik, when they tried to move closer to the center and poach Fidesz voters. His party's only role in Orban's regime is to split the farther than Orban voters between Jobbik, and his party, nothing more, nothing less. For the time being, neither have a snowball's chance in hell to be more than an fringe party, and we'd need some rather tectonic shifts amongst the Hungarian voters to change that.
 

IndyFront

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Orban does these kind of stunts for domestic audience, foreign reactions be damned. It doesn't mean, that he'd try to do anything over to anyone nearby, quite simply because they are either NATO members, way stronger than Hungarian military (yep, that's Ukraine), or fellow outcasts like Serbia.
Literally Russia didn't have the logistics either, didn't stop them from trying. Orban jumping in to try to help his friend in Russia to help his image outside of the EU isn't out of the question.
They are cracking down on him as fast as the EU rules allow,
Then the EU is toothless and
and apart from that, Orban is isolated heavily both in the EU and NATO, and what looks worse, he apparently lost his sense of finding the cracks among the EU members to exploit for his own goals, and not even realizing it, because he fell to the dictator trap, and there is nobody around him to tell him the truth anymore.
Poland says hi
And of course, he lost his biggest protectors in the EU with the departure of Merkel, and the Juncker led previous EU Commission being replaced by the von der Leyen led one. And the economic situation, which is the biggest thing that can undermine his credibility among Hungarians si pretty bad, and going worse every month, and he can't do anything about it, apart from trying to blast more and more empty propaganda.
So which is it, is the EU cracking down on him or not? You say in one breath that the EU can only do so much, and in the same post say that the EU is immune to Hungarian meddling. Which is it?
 

folti

Well-known member
Literally Russia didn't have the logistics either, didn't stop them from trying. Orban jumping in to try to help his friend in Russia to help his image outside of the EU isn't out of the question.
Russia still has the nukes to hide behind, and still have strategic depth, Hungary has neither, but apart from Austria, and maybe Croatia and Slovenia, surrounded by countries, who has all the incentives of stomping on any Hungarian revanchist attempts. And besides that, Orban is a politician, not a jumped up maffia boss like Putin. He won't work through the same violence centric logic as Putin, nor has the same control over Hungarians as Putin. EDIT: and the Hungarian military wouldn't have the numbers to try anything funny even with the new weapons the Germans will ship to us coming next year. A couple dozens of tanks and SPGs won't change the power balance of the region, and as foreign sourced equipment, we can't even run them without getting parts and ammo from Germany, who won't sell them if we start a stupid war in their backyerd.
Then the EU is toothless and
Nope, it's just way slower than anyone of us likes, due to the EU not having direct control over it's members.
Poland says hi
The Hungary-Poland suicide pact in the EU has been broken for the time being due to Orban being a Putin stoogie this openly. Otherwise I have no idea what does Poland to do with the current EU vs Hungary powerplay.
So which is it, is the EU cracking down on him or not? You say in one breath that the EU can only do so much, and in the same post say that the EU is immune to Hungarian meddling. Which is it?
The EU is cracking down on Hungary as much as it's own rules are allowing it. It's a very slow process whether you like it or not. And while it's not completely immune to Hungary vetoing various motions regarding Russian or Ukraine, they are working on changing their own rules, but that's a slow process too, due to the way the EU have been set up. It doesn't mean that the EU can send in the stormtroopers to regime change Hungary, but doesn't mean that Orban can continue to play his usual games in the EU in the future. Time is not on Orban's side, and as damaging his attempts to wring out money from the EU and shield Russia from sanctions, he's on his way out there, and there are no good options for him in the long run.
 
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Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Nope, it's just way slower than anyone of us likes, due to the EU not having direct control over it's members.

The Hungary-Poland suicide pact in the EU has been broken for the time being due to Orban being a Putin stoogie this openly. Otherwise I have no idea what does Poland to do with the current EU vs Hungary powerplay.

The EU is cracking down on Hungary as much as it's own rules are allowing it. It's a very slow process whether you like it or not. And while it's not completely immune to Hungary vetoing various motions regarding Russian or Ukraine, they are working on changing their own rules, but that's a slow process too, due to the way the EU have been set up. It doesn't mean that the EU can send in the stormtroopers to regime change Hungary, but doesn't mean that Orban can continue to play his usual games in the EU in the future. Time is not on Orban's side, and as damaging his attempts to wring out money from the EU and shield Russia from sanctions, he's on his way out there, and there are no good options for him in the long run.
Yep, EU isn't a State or such, and it follows its rules, no matter how much it displeases the peanut gallery and other people who'd better read up a bit on the EU instead of projecting their preconceptions, but that's the only reliable way to avoid dislocation or a civil war down the line.
 
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