Growing Horizons: Inner Sphere - Quest

[Blade4]

I do not see why that could not be the case, seeing that projects get extended IRL all the time.

Awesome then we can just vote to extend Ma Bell and let it keep trying. Would we do that at the end of its cycle or could we vote next turn to extend?

 

[Warringer]

Awesome then we can just vote to extend Ma Bell and let it keep trying. Would we do that at the end of its cycle or could we vote next turn to extend?

The vote to extend an action has to be made before its last turn.

 

[Schreiben]

The spice must flow in cockney...

In this case it is easy to say the project failed before it could start. Even if the intel guys got the gear the projects set end date for results is already fast approaching. Unless...

@Warringer Could we vote to extend a action? Like in this case order a another year/4 turns of effort to make up for lost time?

Uh, hold your horses please. Since we're talking game mechanics here, let me be blunt with the odds for a minute, okay?

For Prometheus as is we'll need a cumulative 6*100*(1-0.45)=330 points/pips/dots/whatever you call the value an dice. We're currently at 1, so we need another 329 for the action to succeed. The odds for that are p(5d100+1)=12.4 %.
Any additional turn spent on Prometheus adds to the success requirement. For an extension of 1 year (4 turns) that's 10*100*(1-0.45)=550 points, and with the singular point we already have, that gives us total odds of p(9d100+1)=14.1 %.

This might seem counterintuitive, but the thing we need to keep in mind is the regression to the mean. Every dice rolls is entirely and totally disconnected from any preceding or following dice rolls. But if you add them up, and the dice aren't tampered with, their average will flatten out towards their mean. The longer and more often we roll, the more likely this is to occur.

Now if we take this rule and take into account the success chance for any action we voted, we'll arrive at one paradigm:
For actions where the success chance (+ applicable bonuses) is ≥ 50 %, extending after early bad rolls will help, since stochastically speaking there should be balancing rolls coming (but it's not guaranteed, of course. And the reverse is equally true; for actions where the success chance (+ applicable bonuses) is < 50 %, extending at any time will hurt us from a statistical point of view, since we'll have to beat the odds even more often than before. All this does is increase the chances for success marginally, and would, in general, lead to the action failing by not as bad of a margin, maybe.

This is a surprisingly good example of the sunk cost fallacy in progress; we don't want to waste the advantages that Prometheus promises, but we would, effectively, buy a minimal (and with each turn decreasing) chance of still succeeding with dice rolls that would almost certainly be better spent elsewhere.

Heck, I would fully support cancelling Prometheus if the next roll isn't at least 88 (this would push the odds for Prometheus' success above 1 in 4), but I am biased here, since the death of Prometheus all but guarantees Further Survey V will be voted in.
And as you know I am vocally supportive of more Surveys. It certainly helps that the odds for success there are 24 in 25, and even with two critical fails would still be even odds of success.

Ah, you were talking about Ma Bell. Umm… A two turn extension would push the overall odds of success form 10.8% to 14.6%.

So… yeah. I don't feel like throwing good money after bad if we can help it; I'd much rather let the action fail and hope for a bonus/better success chance on a retry than extend the action for very marginally increased chances of success.

 

[Blade4]

So… yeah. I don't feel like throwing good money after bad if we can help it; I'd much rather let the action fail and hope for a bonus/better success chance on a retry than extend the action for very marginally increased chances of success.

In pure math perhaps but this is still a story and even a technical fail can be useful. Plasma failed but we still learn much about the inari from studying that gun and it still opened up possibilities. Ma Bells big thing is it has not had a chance to do anything yet and it could be very useful to us. And if we let it fail by time it cycles it will be functionally to late to do it again. I keep harping on it but comstars time is very limited. Within 4 or 5 turns it will die. And with it probable a lot of good people who don't know they work with devils. We extend Ma Bell and even a technical failure greatly enhances the probability some good blakists faction survives or at least many of the HPG operators will swith their coats rather than pointlessly die. And also gives us greater ability to know if the blakists crazies are about to pull something.

 

[Wildredlifer]

[x] Plasma Containment Research:
[X] Invite Others III: Pandemonium

 

[Warringer]

In pure math perhaps but this is still a story and even a technical fail can be useful. Plasma failed but we still learn much about the inari from studying that gun and it still opened up possibilities. Ma Bells big thing is it has not had a chance to do anything yet and it could be very useful to us. And if we let it fail by time it cycles it will be functionally to late to do it again. I keep harping on it but comstars time is very limited. Within 4 or 5 turns it will die. And with it probable a lot of good people who don't know they work with devils. We extend Ma Bell and even a technical failure greatly enhances the probability some good blakists faction survives or at least many of the HPG operators will swith their coats rather than pointlessly die. And also gives us greater ability to know if the blakists crazies are about to pull something.

It will be a bit longer. Because

1. The delegations need to get home
2. The states need to come up with plans to secure as many HPGs as possible
3. The states need to put the people in place to actually capture the HPGs

Give it ten turns from the end of the Conference for anything to happen with Comstar biting the dust.

 

[Eliar]

It will be a bit longer. Because

1. The delegations need to get home
2. The states need to come up with plans to secure as many HPGs as possible
3. The states need to put the people in place to actually capture the HPGs

Give it ten turns from the end of the Conference for anything to happen with Comstar biting the dust.

Will there be counter rolls/hits by Comstar?

I assume the have a crapton of cells/bribed people/contingencies in place to prevent something like what is about to happen.

 

[Warringer]

Will there be counter rolls/hits by Comstar?

I assume the have a crapton of cells/bribed people/contingencies in place to prevent something like what is about to happen.

Of course there will be counter rolls by Comstar. They won't go silent into that good night.

 

[AgentOrange]

[x] Charm Offensive IV
[x] Plasma Containment Research

 

[beast_regards]

If we cancel an action, for the next turn that cancellation takes place, and we'll be able to vote for a different action the following turn. So if we cancel an action after its third crappy roll, the fourth roll will be replaced by the cancellation action, and we'll be able to vote anew for the following turn, after we read the in-story reason why that particular project/research/mission was ended prematurely.

We have valid justification in-character too. The project is not delivering what we expected of it and political situation demands that resources be diverted elsewhere. That was the fate of many real-world projects too. And in-character, as hostilities between us and Comstar become more open there is less pressure to have the means to subvert heir influence, and more to prepare for open war, as Project Prometheus is simply needed much more than the ability to insert messages. Question is whether Project Prometheus has a really higher chance of success, or is immediately required, but IC we can justify the decission

 

[Blade4]

Give it ten turns from the end of the Conference for anything to happen with Comstar biting the dust.

So like 2 and a half years to get to point they can dismantle comstar. FedCom at least a year ahead because we gave them our HPG and should already are already be hitting the point of mass training the insane number of techs they will need... Which might keep them on same track as everyone else because they have so much more to cover... Probable still expect them to hit first if it is not a coaltion thing which i doubt will be ask to be involved in unless they run into something they cant handle like comstar somehow getting all their remain warships moving even if with skeleton crews of barely trained crew with manuals in their laps.

Of course there will be counter rolls by Comstar. They won't go silent into that good night.

Which aint our problem anymore. Comstar is to busy not dying or trying to find boltholes to keep poking at us even if they had not thrown away much of their useful combat strength trying a Doolittle raid. War is functionally won and we get to watch fireworks from a distance and if want to can do our own deep raids and kick them in the balls while they are down or just do nothing.

We have valid justification in-character too. The project is not delivering what we expected of it and political situation demands that resources be diverted elsewhere. That was the fate of many real-world projects too. And in-character, as hostilities between us and Comstar become more open there is less pressure to have the means to subvert heir influence, and more to prepare for open war, as Project Prometheus is simply needed much more than the ability to insert messages. Question is whether Project Prometheus has a really higher chance of success, or is immediately required, but IC we can justify the decission

I would say both are useful but Prometheus is actually the lesser. Its all about trying to reconing Terra and see whats there but baring something unexpected we will not be raiding it anytime soon. Let the houses stick their dicks in that first and see what happens. Doolittle will be raiding adjacent systems to smash naval reserves we need to remove if only to deny them to the houses. Ma Bell is about cracking comstars foundations by spreading all the secrets the fanatics and lunatics at the top dont want the actual membership to know about. If it works then comstar falls apart as the stations splinter away in disgust and join the relevant houses or at least ties up more of ROMs resources as they panic and slit throats which just causes more dissent as the lower ranks see what happens when the higher ups dont get their way. Remember the average comstar is a honestly good person who thinks he is helping humanity. We are at war with the blakists at the top or hiding in the ranks not comstar itself per say.

 

[Alias]

[x] Plasma Containment Research:
While the research of the Alien Plasma Weapon has failed, there are some ideas that were gleamed from the project. Perhaps those gleams could be used to improve existing fusion reactors and maybe even design a new form of directed plasma projecting weapon.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: Improved Fusion Reactors, 50% chance of new Plasma Weapon research option
[X] Invite Others III: Pandemonium

 

[beast_regards]

I would say both are useful but Prometheus is actually the lesser. Its all about trying to reconing Terra and see whats there but baring something unexpected we will not be raiding it anytime soon. Let the houses stick their dicks in that first and see what happens. Doolittle will be raiding adjacent systems to smash naval reserves we need to remove if only to deny them to the houses. Ma Bell is about cracking comstars foundations by spreading all the secrets the fanatics and lunatics at the top dont want the actual membership to know about. If it works then comstar falls apart as the stations splinter away in disgust and join the relevant houses or at least ties up more of ROMs resources as they panic and slit throats which just causes more dissent as the lower ranks see what happens when the higher ups dont get their way. Remember the average comstar is a honestly good person who thinks he is helping humanity. We are at war with the blakists at the top or hiding in the ranks not comstar itself per say.

Operation Doolittle won't replace Ma Bell anyway, it comes under a different category.
Comstar power comes from the fact their communication network won't work without then, and no one would thus dare to attack then as a result, but that's no longer a case since we gave all Houses the operation manuals and each House will inevitably try to seize Comstar's equipment. By the time operation finishes, even with success, there probably wouldn't be enough of Comstar left to subvert. I suppose the technology will be still useful against anyone who gets hold of Comstar's legacy but not Comstat proper. It, however, depends how fast Houses would want to act, they may be unable or unwilling to act hastily

 

[Blade4]

Operation Doolittle won't replace Ma Bell anyway, it comes under a different category.
Comstar power comes from the fact their communication network won't work without then, and no one would thus dare to attack then as a result, but that's no longer a case since we gave all Houses the operation manuals and each House will inevitably try to seize Comstar's equipment. By the time operation finishes, even with success, there probably wouldn't be enough of Comstar left to subvert. I suppose the technology will be still useful against anyone who gets hold of Comstar's legacy but not Comstat proper. It, however, depends how fast Houses would want to act, they may be unable or unwilling to act hastily

Yeah but in this case we are screwing the evil blakists harder and hopefully saving lives overall and not just those in comstar. ROM probable all sorts of fuck you contingencies prepared. Most dont know the evil perpetuated by the guys up top and would break away and that will freak out ROM enough that instead of pulling of fuck you NBC attacks on cities and critical infrastructure they will be busy trying to oppress the lower ranks which will just build more dissent.

The guys in the combine are hard fucked. Survivors of the take over will get to live long enough to keep hpgs working and help train the combine replacements then probable be liquidated as threats. The rest of the sphere those that break away are probable still going to have a hard time and be vetted but can keep helping people redeeming themselves at least. If we do nothing... perhaps it work out better for us? We can only benefit from massive futile infighting and atrocities as comstar dies taking as many as they can with them but i think we are better than that.

The tech can still be usful wih our other immediate neighbors the free worlds but yes it will be of more limited value but at least we will be able to read their mail and dick with them if needed.

 

[beast_regards]

Yeah but in this case we are screwing the evil blakists harder and hopefully saving lives overall and not just those in comstar. ROM probable all sorts of fuck you contingencies prepared. Most dont know the evil perpetuated by the guys up top and would break away and that will freak out ROM enough that instead of pulling of fuck you NBC attacks on cities and critical infrastructure they will be busy trying to oppress the lower ranks which will just build more dissent.

The guys in the combine are hard fucked. Survivors of the take over will get to live long enough to keep hpgs working and help train the combine replacements then probable be liquidated as threats. The rest of the sphere those that break away are probable still going to have a hard time and be vetted but can keep helping people redeeming themselves at least. If we do nothing... perhaps it work out better for us? We can only benefit from massive futile infighting and atrocities as comstar dies taking as many as they can with them but i think we are better than that.

The tech can still be usful wih our other immediate neighbors the free worlds but yes it will be of more limited value but at least we will be able to read their mail and dick with them if needed.

True, even though that all depends on reaction from IC Houses and how keen they are in seizing Comstar nodes and attacking whatever presence they have outside Terra. Or (how bold Houses are going to be in) attacking Terra itself, instead, it would work too. If Comstar is attacked, they won't be any time from them to purge dissent and everyone will focus on the outside enemy

 

[Blade4]

True, even though that all depends on reaction from IC Houses and how keen they are in seizing Comstar nodes and attacking whatever presence they have outside Terra. Or (how bold Houses are going to be in) attacking Terra itself, instead, it would work too. If Comstar is attacked, they won't be any time from them to purge dissent and everyone will focus on the outside enemy

Oh they want comstar gone. None of the lords, especially FedCom leadership, like them but had to tolerate them out of shear need. Now they don't and and have hard proof Comstar is breaking their neutrality hard so as soon as they can comstar is getting rolled up like a rug. We do want Ma Bell to work though since if comstar does not have internal problems there is a good chance in many places the adepts will blow the hpgs before they can be captured and ROM will enact fuck you attacks. The houses need the adepts loyalty dived or turned against the upper ranks. Its iffy though. In canon Myndo insane operation scorpion in the houses failed hard because of a combine spy and FedCom and Combine jumping them first. Knock on effects of this will be very interesting and hard to plot. This probable will push back the war of '39 or Hanse could sucker punch anyway while the combine is weakened greatly by fucked up comm network.

We also need to edit the board where we can for post comstar. This coming turn i really want to launch dolittle because even though we have little use for the ships ourselves we really we need to keep them out of house hands. Working examples would accelerate their programs and we need to keep our insane naval advantage as long as we can. Though could push them to try for sub caps but eh we can deal with those to. Terra should be very interesting and i expect will be at least some fighting over it. Comstar has partially rebuilt the system defenses even if without drones iirc. They can make a fight of it. Its also the only truly fully industrialized system in the sphere and also has fully functional universities. The house will fight for it or burn it down. Maybe divided it and its production up if they can come to a deal? Many ways it could work out and i would love to pull a thunder run through it and wreck infrastructure were we can but that might really piss of the houses.

 

[t-dugong]

[X] Charm Offensive IV

[X] Plasma Containment Research

 

[Schreiben]

Spoiler: Current tally

[1] Hyperwave Local Area Mesh Network
[5] Invite Others III: Pandemonium
[1] We need new members:
[7] Plasma Containment Research:
[2] Charm Offensive IV

I have a question regarding Charm Offensive.

[] Charm Offensive IV:​

In the wake of the Black Warrior Attack and the fears that are still around in the nearby systems, it would be a good idea to alley their fear.​

Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: Better diplomatic relations to the ten known worlds, +5 to diplomatic actions with the ten worlds​

While the flavour text is somewhat outdated, that can easily be remedied. What I'm more concerned with is which worlds constitute the ten affected worlds.
My base assumption is that it's the closest worlds with an at least minimally globalised technological base (post medieval).
Looking at the diplomatics tab we have:

Permanent Ambassies on Llyn Ogwen, Ammann, Craigh, Farnham's Planet, Pandemonium, Bernstein, Santa Alvarez, Zaltek, ANZAC Union, Malwa, Rovaniemi​

+15 on diplomatic actions on Zaltek, ANZAC Union, Malwa, Rovaniemi​

+25 on diplomatic actions on Craigh, Farnham's Planet, Bernstein, Santa Alvarez​

+30 on diplomatic actions on Llyn Ogwen, Ammann and Lothian League​

+40 on diplomatic actions on Pandemonium​

I've slowly worked through the quest and there are a couple inconsistencies. Take Rovaniemi for instance, a Finnish derived society that regressed to hunter-gatherer status. For diplomacy we should have a total of +5 for…

+5 Prometheus Foundation​

But we have +15. I could see how we get another +5 for Charm Offensive III, if the flavour text ten worlds is supposed to mean "any surveyed world with an embassy," but that still means Rovaniemi is +5 too high. Zaltek, ANZAC, and Malwa are basically the same.
Similarly for Pandemonium. I think we discovered them via Köhler Mercenaries' map data, so…

+5 Prometheus Foundation​

+5 Charm Offensive I​

+5 Charm Offensive II​

+5 Charm Offensive III​

+10 Humanitarian Aid II​

So +30 for diplomatic relations with Pandemonium.

This frankly confuses me. Here is a table (based off Warringer's table with known worlds). As you can see for most worlds with embassies the calculated and the given bonuses differ by +5 or even +10 towards the given (barring Santa Alvarez, which is -5 to the calculated value). So I feel like I'm missing something, and modifying Charm Offensive so that it doesn't target the ten closest worlds, but the ten closest worlds with embassies, only mitigates the problem without solving it.

Also, while browsing the quest I found this interesting tidbit; emphasis mine:

While there are at that time no discovery of habited worlds, one of the Survey Squadron does discover the wreckage of a jumpship, which seems to have had a drive system failure that broke the jump core. The jump ship has been floating in space for about two hundred years and showed signs of jury-rigging and damage repaired relatively badly. It was still possibly to recover data from the ships central computer, as well as personal books and documents from the ships crew. In doing so, the Squadron learned about the existence of the Axumite Province, about three hundred lightyears anti-spinwards of the Three Systems.

So we know about a polity or group of polities about three hundred light years farther away from the IS than even us, about the same distance as Tharkad is from us, just in the other direction (more or less). I obviously don't know if this an early instance of a plot point we can easily forget, given that Warringer said we'll hardly find anything in that direction, but on the other hand it might be illuminating to send a Redoubt with attached survey squadrons for a deep survey there. Our HFEG FTL would allow us to survey relatively undetected, at least compared to IS tech.

Also also, can we get another Open Diplomatic Channels action that establishes more embassies? I'd understand some reluctance if the charm offensive's range is tied to embassied worlds, but this limitation can easily be implemented by limiting the cumulative bonus in diplomatic action to +50 across all affected worlds, and +10 for any single world.

 

[Blade4]

I have a question regarding Charm Offensive.

If not for you bringing up pandemonium would have gone with this and see what fish we could have caught and well inconsistency's are understandable. Games like this the more numbers the more chances stuff can go wrong. Has happen several time i know off and we just roll with it.

​

Also, while browsing the quest I found this interesting tidbit; emphasis mine:
So we know about a polity or group of polities about three hundred light years farther away from the IS than even us, about the same distance as Tharkad is from us, just in the other direction (more or less). I obviously don't know if this an early instance of a plot point we can easily forget, given that Warringer said we'll hardly find anything in that direction, but on the other hand it might be illuminating to send a Redoubt with attached survey squadrons for a deep survey there. Our HFEG FTL would allow us to survey relatively undetected, at least compared to IS tech.

Also also, can we get another Open Diplomatic Channels action that establishes more embassies? I'd understand some reluctance if the charm offensive's range is tied to embassied worlds, but this limitation can easily be implemented by limiting the cumulative bonus in diplomatic action to +50 across all affected worlds, and +10 for any single world.

Yeah i think that was very early game. Good catch. If get a chance we should send a explorer group out to see whats there. We might also bump into the union which is its own can of worms we might want to crack sooner rather than later. We know its out there somewhere. And we could open diplo channels i guess but with who? I think we have embassies on every nearby world worth doing. We still need to put some on Free worlds and Andurien. Marian is a shit show and would not trust them to honor a embassy. Much farther a field is not much point because of shear distance.

 

[Warringer]

*snip*

It is perfectly possible that I mismanaged the points handed out, by counting the +5 as +10 once or twice. These things happen.

 

[Warringer]

Turn 50 - Winter 2186/3036

WCDC Defense Council:

[] Ground Warfare Training: active
Time: 5 turns, Chance of success 70%
Roll 1 of 5, Roll 1d100: 50 - Success
Roll 2 of 5, Roll 1d100: 42 - Success
Roll 3 of 5, Roll 1d100: 69 - Success
Roll 4 of 5, Roll 1d100: 21 - Failure
Roll 5 of 5, Roll 1d100: 80 - Success
Combined: 52 - Success
New Weapon Dev Programm, Roll 1d6 (even = yes, odd = no): 2 - Yes, New weapon Systems

While there have been some setbacks in Autumn, the goal of providing new tactics and strategies to WCDC ground forces has been productive, making use of data recovered during the McCarron Raid on Circinus. The raid of an elite Inner Sphere Mercenary Force and the direct observation of two additional Elite Mercenary Forces, Cranston Snord'd Irregulars and Wolfs Draggon, as well as conventional military forces of the FWL, Andurien and the Combine, had allowed the planners a deep look into commonly used tactics. Many of these tactics were for open ground combat and new tactics for urban combat, even though the reactions of the other IS forces taking part in the defense have shown McCarron's Forces went out of their way to induce civilian losses.

In the end, the reaction to the use of massed indirect fire by the IS delegations and the complete loss of an entire Batallion of the raiding forces to this indiscriminate artillery bombardment have been noted, determining future use of additional artillery against any IS forces a more central part of future tactics. Additionally, it showed that potentially new indirect fire weapon systems would be a good future investment and that a new weapon development project for such weapons should be initiated.

Reward: +10 against IS ground forces, +5 against mechs, new tactics, new weapon development programs

[] Heavy Mechs and Tanks: active
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 70%
Roll 1 of 4, Roll 1d100: 68+5+5 = 78 - Success (All R&D, All Ground R&D)
Roll 2 of 4, Roll 1d100: 17+5+5 = 27 - Failure
Roll 3 of 4, Roll 1d100: 23+5+5 = 33 - Success

While there was insufficient actual design experience for heavy and super heavy mechs and tanks, those problems were temporary, largely helped by modern computer aided design and modeling of such weapon carriers, aided by the data gathered by the previous projects to take apart heavy IS mechs.

As such, there were several designs in the medium stages of development and one or two prototypes were already in production, ready for the formal tests to determine whether they would be used or not.

active for 1 more turn

WCDC Survey Office:

[] Operation Ma Bell: active
Time: 6 turns, Chance of success: 45%
Roll 1 of 6, Roll 1d100: 83 - Success
Roll 2 of 6, Roll 1d100: 12 - Failure
Roll 3 of 6, Roll 1d100: 28 - Failure
Roll 4 of 6, Roll 1d100: 52 - Failure
Roll 5 of 6, Roll 1d100: 91 - Success

After more than nine months of failure of Operation Ma Bell, due to the destruction of the main ERS-HPG on Circinus and the subsequent inability to replace the device, a new device was finally installed in early Winter and modified in its soft and hardware to finally begin its work to sow discontent within Comstar.

Following several new test messages, the actual operation began, taking a page out of the operation of 'Capt'n Cruch' as it continued to be studied by the Survey Office. Using the alias of 'Guy Fawkes', messages were sent out to a number of recipients within Comstar, utilizing several 'membership registries' circulated within the network, targeting already discontented Comstar Adepts and Acolytes, and a few higher level members.

This initial set of messages did not seem to result in problems with Comstar, though for some reason 'Capt'n Crunch' did message 'Guy Fawkes' in turn. A limited conversation was started, indicating that 'Guy Fawkes' was willing to support 'Capt'n Crunch' in subverting the First Circuit. Of course, 'Capt'n Crunch' was weary about this support, which continued, until the first global messages were sent out by Operation Ma Bell, containing transcripts from First Circuit Meetings before the McCarron Raid on Circinus, recovered by HPG Backscatter on Tharkad.

These global messages led to a massive reaction by the ROM, including an additional meeting of the First Circuit, talking about the message and how to best suppress it in late Winter.

active for 1 more turn

[] Operation Prometheus: active
Time: 6 turns, Chance of success: 45%
Roll 1 of 6, Roll 1d100: 1 - Crit Failure
Roll 2 of 6, Roll 1d100: 58 - Success

While the initial attempts to get an intelligence operation to directly target Terra off the ground had been unsuccessful, Operation Prometheus was finally approved in early Winter.

It utilized the recently upgraded Invader class Jump Ship Don't Mind Me to carry a trip of Sleipnir with intelligence equipment. By late Winter the Don't Mind Me left for Terra, to reach the systems Oort Cloud by early Spring and begin its operation, sending data back to Berlin via Hyperwave.

active for 4 more turns

Deep Space Signal Intelligence Network

[] Operation Green Granite: active
Time: 8 turns, Chance of success: 50%
Roll 1 of 8, Roll 1d100: 43+5 = 48 - Failure (All DSSINOO operations)
Roll 2 of 8, Roll 1d100: 86+5 = 91 - Success
Roll 3 of 8, Roll 1d100: 28+5 = 32 - Failure
Roll 4 of 8, Roll 1d100: 14+5 = 19 - Failure
Roll 5 of 8, Roll 1d100: 27+5 = 32 - Failure
Roll 6 of 8, Roll 1d100: 54+5 = 59 - Success
Roll 7 of 8, Roll 1d100: 62+5 = 67 - Success

With the belated realization that the previous data had been correct, the subsequent information gathering took more care, the initial analysis showing that the expected density of jump traffic was indeed far below what had been expected and that likely actual trade within the FWL and the Lyran Commonwealth was quite a bit lower than models of both states had previously shown, making it important to rethink those models.

active for 1 more turn

WCDC Diplomatic Corps:

[] Calls for Confederation: active
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 42%
Roll 1 of 4, Roll 1d100: 73 - Success
Roll 2 of 4, Roll 1d100: 94 - Success
Roll 3 of 4, Roll 1d100: 27 - Failure
Roll 4 of 4, Roll 1d100: 100 - Crit Success
Combined: 73 - Success

Even if there had been some factional politics in Autumn, with Hannover preventing trade talks with the Draconis Combine, the remainder of the talks concerning the formation of a Confederation were quite successful. What is surprising, is that none of those nations that had previously shown doubt concerning membership in the new Confederation had now fully come around to become members, even if only due to the potential ramifications, should an IS nation prepare to fully invade the WCDC.

As such, by the end of Winter, all member nations of the WCDC had their internal talks and finally had signed the Confederation Treats, forming the Organization of Confederated Planets, a new single nation, that still gave its members full freedom in their internal politics.

The Imperial City on Jerat would host the government of the OCP and in one of the first sessions of the new, though probatory, parliament, the first Chairman of the Confederation was elected, Rynem of the Gerant Vorem, the generally respected Elder Statesperson of the Quetzal.

Reward: WCDC turns into the Organization of Confederated Planets as single nation

[] Invite Others III: - 5 votes (5 Pandemonium) active
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 35%
Roll 1 of 4, Roll 1d100: 6+40 = 46 - Failure (Diplomatic Relations)

While the final parts were put into place for the Organization of Confederated Planets, some diplomats were prepared to search for new members for the WCDC, coming to the planet of Pendemonium. While there were some initial talks about membership, the Council of Elders was less than supportive about the situation, noting that the WCDC was on the way to form a single nation, fearing for their own internal independence from the outside world, especially in these times, where they were massively industrializing to catch up technologically.

active for 3 more turns

WCDC Trade Organization:

[] New Settlement Initiative: active
Time: 6 turns, Chance of success: 65%
Roll 1 of 6, Roll 1d100: 40+10+10+10 = 70 - Success (Stronger Economy, Economic Ties, Interstellar Communication Network)
Roll 2 of 6, Roll 1d100: 10+10+10+10 = 40 - Success
Roll 3 of 6, Roll 1d100: 89+10+10+10 = 119 - Artificial Crit Success
Roll 4 of 6, Roll 1d100: 31+10+10+10 = 61 - Success
Roll 5 of 6, Roll 1d100: 56+10+10+10 = 86 - Success
Roll 6 of 6, Roll 1d100: 37+10+10+10 = 61 - Success
Combined: 73 - Success

As the New Settlement Initiative has finally run it course, with the WCDCTO handing out about incentives to almost a hundred of settlement ventures for eight different systems. Some settlements had failed to get to the stage where they could be considered successful, but the vast majority had indeed formed into viable settlements on their own right, independent of external food and material imports and pulling in new settlers by the hundreds.

Reward: 8 newly settled planets

[] Build the Weapons: active
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 70%
Roll 1 of 4, Roll 1d100: 69+10+10+10+10 = 109 - Artificial Crit (Stronger Economy, Economic Ties, Military-Industrial Complex, Interstellar Communication Network)
Roll 2 of 4, Roll 1d100: 19+10+10+10+10 = 59 - Success
Roll 3 of 4, Roll 1d100: 56+10+10+10+10 = 96 - Artificial Crit

More Inner Sphere weapon systems are developed into new directions, as the various versions of the standard short and long range missiles are taken apart and improved. Modern micro electronics easily allow integrating improved targeting and control systems into the warheads, improving the yield of their warheads, while the accuracy of the missiles remains the same.

As these weapons are developed, the Militaries of the WCDC show interest in more advanced versions of these weapons, with further improved range and accuracy.

Result: +5 to artillery weapon R&D for ten turns
active for 1 more turn

WCDC Office for Science and Development:

[] HFEG Jump: active
Time: 12 turns, Chance of success: 25%
Roll 1 of 12, Roll 1d100: 40+10+10 = 60 - Failure (Research Center Sol, Interstellar Communication Network)
Roll 2 of 12, Roll 1d100: 14+10+10 = 34 - Failure
Roll 3 of 12, Roll 1d100: 77+10+10 = 97 - Artificial Crit
Roll 4 of 12, Roll 1d100: 84+10+10 = 104 - Artificial Crit
Roll 5 of 12, Roll 1d100: 75+10+10 = 95 - Arfificial Crit
Roll 6 of 12, Roll 1d100: 12+10+10 = 32 - Failure
Roll 7 of 12, Roll 1d100: 62+10+10 = 82 - Success
Roll 8 of 12, Roll 1d100: 46+10+10 = 66 - Failure
Roll 9 of 12, Roll 1d100: 67+10+10 = 87 - Success
Roll 10 of 12, Roll 1d100: 50+10+10 = 70 - Failure
Roll 11 of 12, Roll 1d100: 8+10+10 = 28 - Failure

The problems just remain the same, as model after model for the proposed theories and even designs prove to be unfeasable again and again.

active for 1 more turn

[] Plasma Containment Research: - 7 votes active
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 45%
Roll 1 of 4, Roll 1d100: 31+10+10 = 51 - Failure (Research Center Sol, Interstellar Communication Network)

With the results of the failed plasma weapon project, some researchers are sure that the systems encountered within that weapon could theoretically be used to improve existing fusion reactors into more compact designs.

Wile there were some grants handed out, the main problem was that the theory behind the potential designs had to be worked out and with the large super computers hogged by the HFEG project, this proved to be harder than expected.

active for 3 more turns

----------------------------

WCDC Internal Events:

The first of the Von Neumanns, Bob, successfully build two new Von Neumans after having placed several defense platforms in the Neu Berlin System, bringing the number of Von Neumans up to four, with two AIs, Tim and Allan, joining the Von Neumanm Club.

Meanwhile, the United States of America, the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Quaud and the United Colonies each finished with the construction of modified Petan and Haing class WarShips with biological crews.

----------------------------

Deep Space Signal Intelligence Network Report:

Lothian League:

There is little of note to say.

Illyrian Palatinate:

There is little of note to say.

Circinus Federation:

There is little of note to say.

Marian Hegemony:

There is little of note to say.

Inner Sphere:

Lyran Commonwealth:

Nothing out of the ordinary as far as can be decerned.

Federated Suns:

Nothing out of the ordinary as far as can be decerned.

Draconis Combine:

Nothing out of the ordinary as far as can be decerned.

Free Worlds League:
Dutchy of Andurien:

Following the Circinus Conference, news are getting out that the FWL and Andurien have signed a peace treaty, which allows both sides to retain their conquered territory.

Comstar:

The reaction to the Circinus Peace Treaty by Comstar was mixed. While it is clear the rank and file welcome the peace, the First Circuit is less than thrilled with the result. They clearly had expected that either nation would ratify the treaty. Additionally, they had expected to at least see some delegations reduced in number, perhaps with several of the members at least heavily injured in the followup of the McCarron Raid.

Primus Waterly clearly did not take the news calmly, as she all but ranted for half an hour during a First Circuit meeting via HPG, all but ordering Preceptor Rom Focht to pull the WarShips out of deep storage and prepare them for deployment, as the two WarShips sent to Circinus clearly were destroyed by 'a fluke'. Only in a later meeting did Focht notify the First Circuit that we have a Texas class Battleship in their possession, as he received information from a deep cover ROM agent in the FWL diplomatic team. This in turn led to Waterly demanding that the fleets be all prepared as soon as possible to 'crush those periphery upstarts'.

Expansion and Suggestions:

The DSSI Network slowly continues to expand into the Inner Sphere.

-----------------------

Random Event - Nothing happens

 

[Warringer]

Turn 51 - Spring 2187/3037

WCDC Defense Council:

[] Heavy Mechs and Tanks: active (1 turn)
The invasion of McCarron's Armored Cavalry on Circinus has shown that MBTS and the Fusilier mech are not allways adequate in combat situations in the Inner Sphere, making it nessecary to develop Heavy Tanks and Mechs to counter those of the Inner Sphere.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 70%, Reward: Heavy Mechs and Tanks (1d2 for each)

[] Extended Anti-Piracy Patrols:
While the project to improve the defense against piracy in Known Space around the WCDC was a success, many within the Diplomatic Corps and the Military believed that more should be done to prevent piracy in this sector of space, as the destruction of any 'Pirate Heaven' close by would proove to remain a problem not only for the WCDC, but also for any nearby nation the WCDC had contact with. As such, longer duration and longer ranged patrols to discover any potential pirate havens in known space and destroy them before they can be fully established.
Time: 5 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: Long Duration, long range patrols, reduction of pirate activity to almost zero within known space

[] Capital Weapons:
While the majority of weapon systems used on the Belisarius are in a sense prototypes, it might be a good idea to take a closer look at the various weapon systems taken from the WarShip to figure out how to build better weapons for such massive vessels.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 65%, Reward: Multiple new Capital Weapon Systems

[] Operation Doolittle:
As the McCarron Raid has been pretty much the initial steps in a more open war of Comstar against the WCDC, so there should be steps taken against Comstar in turn. Data recovered from Bordeaux suggest that two systems, Luyten 68-28 and Ross 248, are used as fleet bases by Comstar and that the WarShips in those fleets might be in mothballs. Perhaps it might be a good idea to take a visit of one of those systems, capture a number of those WarShips, before destroying the rest and as much critical space infrastructure as possuble.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 65%, Reward: Reduction of Comstar space forces, capture of (1d6+3) WarShips

[] Project Cerulean Goddess
With the WarShips that were used by Comstar for the McCarron Raid, the WCDC should set some funds to the side to begin with the production of a few WarShips, even though there are currently only three viable designs.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 70%, Reward: Production of (1d6+4) WarShips over the next 4 turns, Reduction of time needed to develop new WarShips by 1 turn

[] Organization of Confederated Planets Military:
With the formation of the Organization of Confederated Planets, there are calls to integrate parts of the member nations militaries into a central military force, which would be under control of the new OCP Government.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 75%, Reward: Centralized OCP Military, +15 to all military actions

[] Project Green Bracket:
IS Forces have shown themselves to be vulnerable to artillery fire and such a vulnerability should be exploited with new indirect fire weapon systems.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 65%, Reward: 1d2 new Atrillery systems

WCDC Survey Office:

[] Operation Ma Bell: active (1 turn)
With the newly developed 'HPG Phreaking', it will be possible to insert messages into the Comstar HPG data stream. This could be used to further the divide already existing within Comstar to possibly force the organization to break down on its own, delaying any moves against the WCDC.
Time: 6 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: More internal strife for Comstar, chance of a breakup increased by 2d20%

[] Operation Prometheus: active (4 turns)
With the almost direct attack of Comstar on Circinus, there is a need to gain more knowledge about Comstar itself and their capabilities, especially on Terra and the local version of Sol. As such, several vessels should be sent to Terra to operate in the systems Kuiper Belt and gather close up information, perhaps even going as far as attempting to directly insert agents on Terra.
Time: 6 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: More information about Comstar and terran defenses, 10% chance to emplace several agents on Terra, 5% chance of contact with Belters

[] Further Survey V:
Following the Initial Survey, more information should be gathered further outside of the Walker Cluster and the already known space.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 65%, Reward: (10+2d20) systems from 60 to 90 ly discovered, followup action allows surveying the remaining space

[] Deep Cover Intelligence IV:
With a few more Inader II dropships avaiable, it should be possible t o send out a few more of them for long duration deep cover missions to gather intelligence data of all Inner Sphere powers, even those periphery powers that are some distance away.
Time: 1 turn, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: continous intelligence reports over several years, while other operations are available
This option takes one turn to initiate, than continues without using up an option
Dependent on Project Orange Grass

[] Organization of Confederated Planets Intelligence:
With the Formation of the Organization of Confederated Planets, in combination with the mixed results of the WCDC intelligence operations, a new Intelligence organization should be formed, integrating more personall of the various national intelligence agencies into the new organization, with the DSSINOO folded into this new organization and Survey spun off into its own organization.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 75%, Reward: Centralized OCP Intelligence, +15 to all intelligence operations, Survey becomes passive operation, DSSINO gets disbanded and DSSIN extension becomes passive operation

Deep Space Signal Intelligence Network

[] Operation Green Granite: active (1 turn)
There are a number of Walsingham class jumpships avaiable to the DSSINOO, which have recently been upgraded with HFEGs. They should be additionally equipped with Superluminal Wave Detectors and used to analyze jumpship movements inside the borders of both the Lyran Commonwealth and the Free Worlds League, as well as the Marian Hegemony to paint a good picture of any jumpship operations there.
Time: 8 turns, Chance of success: 50%, Reward: Detailed information about jumpship movements deep in the Inner Sphere

[] HumInt:
Find a way to emplace HumInt agents into places of interest.
Time: 3 turns, Chance of success: 40%, Reward: A way to insert agents to planets where they can gather human intelligence

[] Network Extension:
The worlds of New St. Andrews and Niops appear to be good cancidates for the extension of the Network.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: Network extension into New St. Andrews and Niops

[] DSSIN Survey Squadron:
PErhaps it would be a good idea to put some dedicated survey squadron under the command of the DSSINOO to help them with some survey work in the area surroiunding FOB Pine Gap
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: 1d4 Survey squadrons for the DSSINOO, +1d6 on DSSINOO survey operations

WCDC Diplomatic Corps:

[] Invite Others III: active (3 turns)
The WCDC was working out nicely and maybe it was time to invite one of the other worlds outside the Three Systems into the WCDC?
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 35%, Reward: The selected world joins the WCDC as a member
Please select a world from the list of Known Habited Worlds neat the Walker Cluster

[] Humanitarian Aid IV:
With the formation of the Prometheus Foundation, it would be a shame not to make use of it. As such, it might be advantageous to send out a diplomatic mission to one of the neighboring systems discovered recently, and offer the planet some humanitarian aid. Rumors within the Foundation note they have been able to produce a couple of Planetary Settlement Kits, usually meant to establish new settlements on habitable worlds.
Time: 3 turns, Chance of success: 50%, Reward: +10 on diplomatic action on targeted world, targeted world is slowly brought up to a Walker Cluster tech level
Please select a world from the list of Known Habited Worlds neat the Walker Cluster

[] Charm Offensive IV:
In the wake of the Black Warrior Attack and the fears that are still around in the nearby systems, it would be a good idea to alley their fear.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: Better diplomatic relations to the ten known worlds, +5 to diplomatic actions with the ten worlds

[] We need new members:
There are 8 nations in the Three Systems that have declined to become members of the WCDC. The Three Systems can't effort to have some nations working on cross purposes and endanger the entire rest of the Walker Cluster. So there is a need to get them aboard and into the WCDC.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 25%, Reward: 1d6 nations of the 8 nations that declined WCDC membership initially, become WCDC members

[] Organization of Confederated Planets Diplomatic Corps:
With the formation of the Organization of Confederated Planets, the Diplomatic Corps needs to be reorganized to better reflect the new status of the OCP.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 75%, Reward: new OCP Diplomatic Corps, +10 to all diplomatic actions

OCP Trade Organization:

[] Build the Weapons: active (1 turns)
Since the weapons used by the Inner Sphere were successfully reverese engineered, it is not possible to build carbon copies of them and perhaps even build up on them, though mostly for export. Handing the plans over to several arms cpmpanies will allow that they can be sold easily
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 70%, Reward: Ability to build IS weapons, Options to create upgraded IS weapons, Possibility to sell weapons

[] Light Warship:
With the Belisarius and the Petan derives Warship hulls avaiable, maybe it is time to design a few Warships that are lighter than the Petan derived hulls to act as larger support vessels.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: 1d2 designs of a Light Warship (<500ktonnes), 25% chance of a working prototype
Only available after completion of Warship Roles

[] Medium Warship:
With the Belisarius and the Petan derives Warship hulls avaiable, maybe it is time to design a few Warships that are in the same weight area as the Petan derived hulls to act as medium combatants.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: 1d2 designs of a Medium Warship (<1Mtonnes), 25% chance of a working prototype
Only available after completion of Warship Roles

[] Heavy Warship:
With the Belisarius and the Petan derives Warship hulls avaiable, maybe it is time to design a few Warships that are as heavy as Belisarius to give the WCDC fleets more of a punch in every situation.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: 1d2 designs of a Heavy Warship (>1Mtonnes), 25% chance of a working prototype
Only available after completion of Warship Roles

[] Industrial Export:
Some surprising things have come up during historical research, including the Terran Hegemony flooding the Periphery with cheap goods and systems that killed off local suppliers and left worlds in the cold, following the Amaris Crisis and the following Successor Wars. Now some companies believe they could make a profit selling power generation, atmospheric processors, water purification and other similar systems to the worlds and polities surrounding the WCDC. Some even propose to set up factories for these things on other planets and polities. This would certainly improve the economic situation of these worlds, diplomatic contact with them, as well as improve the WCDC economy.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: +10 to external trade with selected world, +10 to diplomacy with selected world
Select a world or polity to export to

OCP Office for Science and Development:

[] HFEG Jump: active (1 turn)
In the wake of the success with the Jump Drive and the HFEG working in parallel, there have been some signs that it might be possible to combine both systems into a single drive system.
Time: 12 turns, Chance of success: 25%, Reward: HF Jump Drive

[] Plasma Containment Research: active (3 turns)
While the research of the Alien Plasma Weapon has failed, there are some ideas that were gleamed from the project. Perhaps those gleams could be used to improve existing fusion reactors and maybe even design a new form of directed plasma projecting weapon.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: Improved Fusion Reactors, 50% chance of new Plasma Weapon research option

[] Hyperwave Local Area Mesh Network:
The development of the Hypwerwave Communication system has brought a few interesting possible uses for the technology. For one, some scientists have compared it to WiFi technology. Perhaps it would be possible to take the system and develop it into a FTL equivalent for use in local area (system) mesh networks.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: Hyperwave Local Area Mesh Network

[] Compact Hyperwave Transceiver:
The scientists are sure that it will be possible to create much more compact hyperwave transcivers than the scurrently microwave sized designs. These transceivers might take a hit in range and network speed however.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 45%, Reward: Compact Hyperwave transceivers (1d6 for final size)

[] General Hyperwave Research:
There are some things that came up during the research into Hyperwave Trenceivers and HYDAR. MAybe it would be some time to take a closer look at the various things that have come to mind.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 40%, Reward: Unknown new Research Option

----------------------------

2 Action for:

1 Action for:
Military
Diplomacy
Trade

 

[Schreiben]

Well, we don't have embassies on a lot of the big IS powers, so there's that. The nearby unembassied worlds are nine: Reykjavik, Mafine, Mikhaylovka, Lopbari, Tolhuin, Tellus, Kafue, Willard's World, and Whati. For some reason we discovered and embassied Malwa quite early, but that's Survey for you.

Incidentally, we're still not quite done with the 90 ly bubble around Sol; the Survey is sitting at 74%. And since this falls under Survey, we didn't discover New St. Andrews nor Niops during turn 38–39's failed Network Extension. This is available again, and @Warringer, the DSSIN Survey Squadron failed for Turn 43, so given the mandated 1 year pause we should be able to vote for them again.

By the way, I'm fine with keeping the respective diplomatic bonus values, if that's easier for the QM, but at the same time I'd like to know that and just adjust my copied table appropriately.

 

[Blade4]

Victory glorious fucking victory Viva la OCP forever!

Lot of good here and opportunities need to jump on and reorganizations we need to get done fast. Training has given good bonuses and new weapon options. Heavy probable give us more designs to play with next turn. Ma Bell finally just gave us a major win that even if fails again should really fuck the blakists. Though would like a second go at it if we could. Prometheus is finally moving. Granite is working finally. And call of confed epic win all around. We need to get those reorg action done soon as we can. New settlement great maybe repeat if we can soon push more out the door to colonize and build up or reinforce current colonies? Build is win and we need to jump on that +5 arty boost while we can. Research? It just makes me sad. Do we need to go whip the computers and scientists? I will have my HFEG's and plasma if i have to strangle it out of someone!

Von neumans reproduce and @Warringer how many new cruisers just came on line?

And comstar... I am honestly shocked that the Primus has not be unseated, and shot, already and calling up their fleet? Need to jump that now.

Actions:

[X] Organization of Confederated Planets Military:
With the formation of the Organization of Confederated Planets, there are calls to integrate parts of the member nations militaries into a central military force, which would be under control of the new OCP Government.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 75%, Reward: Centralized OCP Military, +15 to all military actions

[X] Organization of Confederated Planets Diplomatic Corps:
With the formation of the Organization of Confederated Planets, the Diplomatic Corps needs to be reorganized to better reflect the new status of the OCP.
Time: 2 turns, Chance of success: 75%, Reward: new OCP Diplomatic Corps, +10 to all diplomatic actions

[X] Light Warship:
With the Belisarius and the Petan derives Warship hulls avaiable, maybe it is time to design a few Warships that are lighter than the Petan derived hulls to act as larger support vessels.
Time: 4 turns, Chance of success: 60%, Reward: 1d2 designs of a Light Warship (<500ktonnes), 25% chance of a working prototype
Only available after completion of Warship Roles

Doolittle is neccessary but if we do reorg first we get a sweet +15 and gives time for comstar to screw themselves harder. The Dantes are their cadre formations for useful warship crews and they just lost 2 out of 3 and the mothball ships are at least a year probable closer to a decade to get all of them out of dock even if they had the crew. We do reorg then launch the raid that will give comstar a year or so to get on the ships and and invest a obscene amount of manpower and resources just to get them moving just in time for our raiders to move in and kill or seize the now mobile assets and burn everything else. This should absolutely annihilate the Comguards navy division as a useful force. They will still have Titian yards in Sol itself but raid goes right we will destroy their ability to do anything with warships and deny those resources to the houses.

Diplo is just obvious get it done and the bonus and move on. Light warships? Well we got several potentially very useful designs already banding about and it looks like nothing better for option. Medium and heavy can still wait till we have new weapons/tech or tactics that would warrant new designs. Though we do need more trade options...

Intersting will be spy re org. We do really need it and would love to see survey its own branch actually surveying. First free action need to jump on that.

 

[Warringer]

Von neumans reproduce and @Warringer how many new cruisers just came on line?

We got four accitional cruisers. Two of each version.

And comstar... I am honestly shocked that the Primus has not be unseated, and shot, already and calling up their fleet? Need to jump that now.

They lost two warships. They are in something of a controlled panic.