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Coup in Myanmar

Alias

Bean Daddy
Moderator
Been rumors of a coup being a possibility the last few days.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
I must confess one thing. Well, maybe a few.

Singapore supplied the telco equipment and training for their internet. Ergo, we also trained them likely to be able to block, sniff, monitor anything that goes on.

To wit: https://www.stengg.com/en/newsroom/...rity-operation-centre-as-a-platform-solution/
The Electronics sector entered into a collaboration with Myanmar partner, Alliance Urban Transports (AUT) to provide cybersecurity services and training for Myanmar’s government, financial services and insurance sectors.

ST Engineering and AUT will jointly operate an SOC in Yangon. Through SOCaaP, the setup of this SOC will be shortened to just under four months, from the usual over 12-month lead time required for such implementation. The partners will also operate a cybersecurity training centre in Yangon to help strengthen Myanmar’s national cybersecurity resilience and boost its cyberthreat detection and response capabilities.

The agreement was signed by Mr Lau Thiam Beng, President of Cybersecurity Systems Group, ST Engineering, and Mr U Kyaw Win, Chairman of AUT. The signing ceremony was witnessed by Mr Ravinder Singh, President of Electronics, ST Engineering, Mr U Thar Oo, Deputy Minister for Transport and Communications, Myanmar, and Dr Janil Puthucheary, Senior Minister of State for Ministry of Communications and Information.
 
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Vikram

Well-known member
At least 18 people killed during protests.
Let's see how this goes. China wouldn't mind this coup, and India doesn't care. So the neighbours will stay out of this.

It is now all up to the natives and the gods.
 

Vikram

Well-known member
I hope Myanmar will not become another fail state. Imagine the Refugee Crisis
I can think of a few people both excited and terrified over the idea.

And no, I suppose China will prop the military up with infra loans. The rest have washed their hands of the matter though, so dunno if that'll work.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
I hope Myanmar will not become another fail state. Imagine the Refugee Crisis
I mean, back in 2007, the junta shot up the monks and there are photos of bodies floating in the marshes and refugees didn't flood the area. Myanmar is run by a Junta that is like a heavily armed mafia really.

I can think of a few people both excited and terrified over the idea.

And no, I suppose China will prop the military up with infra loans. The rest have washed their hands of the matter though, so dunno if that'll work.
The relationship between China and the Junta can be best described as complicated.
 

Vikram

Well-known member
I mean, back in 2007, the junta shot up the monks and there are photos of bodies floating in the marshes and refugees didn't flood the area. Myanmar is run by a Junta that is like a heavily armed mafia really.


The relationship between China and the Junta can be best described as complicated.
Er, refugees DID flood the area for a long while. Rohingya have become a political whipping boy for every right wing politician in the vicinity.

In fact, they were the excuse Modi used to try and bring in the CAA, which was hard enough to force back as it was. Other than that, the East Bengalis and the hill people seem to be getting VERY frustrated about the same.

The refugee problem is already there. I fear further declines, not beginning.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Er, refugees DID flood the area for a long while. Rohingya have become a political whipping boy for every right wing politician in the vicinity.

In fact, they were the excuse Modi used to try and bring in the CAA, which was hard enough to force back as it was. Other than that, the East Bengalis and the hill people seem to be getting VERY frustrated about the same.

The refugee problem is already there. I fear further declines, not beginning.
Yeah but we are talking about general government protests and not the latest Rohingya pogrom.

And let's get it out of the way, pretty much no one in the region really cares about the Rohingya. The Thais finding some Rohingya boats and removing their engines to leave them to die out in the sea is pretty much emblematic of that.
 

Vikram

Well-known member
Yeah but we are talking about general government protests and not the latest Rohingya pogrom.

And let's get it out of the way, pretty much no one in the region really cares about the Rohingya. The Thais finding some Rohingya boats and removing their engines to leave them to die out in the sea is pretty much emblematic of that.
Everyone cares if millions of them flood border villages, I'm afraid. Uncontrolled refugee crises have literally caused a massive war in South Asia before*, and it may again if Myanmar keeps going crazy.

*1971, where Indira Gandhi declared war on Pakistan to stop the genocide their military was committing in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and the resultant refugee crisis that was pushing border resources to the brink of collapse.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Everyone cares if millions of them flood border villages, I'm afraid. Uncontrolled refugee crises have literally caused a massive war in South Asia before*, and it may again if Myanmar keeps going crazy.

*1971, where Indira Gandhi declared war on Pakistan to stop the genocide their military was committing in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and the resultant refugee crisis that was pushing border resources to the brink of collapse.
There are only about 1.4 million Rohingya, and about more than half are already in Bangladesh. I do not know why you are bringing them up when they aren't currently relevant to the topic.
 

Vikram

Well-known member
There are only about 1.4 million Rohingya, and about more than half are already in Bangladesh. I do not know why you are bringing them up when they aren't currently relevant to the topic.
Because as I said in my first post, I fear further declines. 1.4 for now isn't beyond managing, but if it gets worse due to the military doing what their kind do in such situations......
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Because as I said in my first post, I fear further declines. 1.4 for now isn't beyond managing, but if it gets worse due to the military doing what their kind do in such situations......
Try to avoid throwing red herrings, and be that as it may, and as much as I can imagine the junta might try to distract people with another stupid pogrom, it is very much preoccupied with dealing with protests.

And in any case, an academic from Thailand has written a decent article pointing out the considerations of the various nations in Asean and China.


TLDR:

1. ASEAN is ineffectual, in part many of its members aren't exactly exemplars of democracy, let alone Thailand which is also led by its own version of a military junta.
2. The junta is pretty much entrenched and getting them to do anything out of goodwill is going to be bloody difficult.
3. There is essentially not much ASEAN can do and either way, it is a lose-lose.

Ultimately, the fundamental issue is the relationship between Suu Kyi and the Min Aung Hlaing. Neither liked each other, to put everything very mildly, and Suu Kyi apparently made attempts to introduce more civilian control of the government, which the military has long seen as its retirement job complex and through the government, used the country as a personal piggy bank, running various businesses. Suu Kyi tried to reverse some of that, and the military decided to take back control by force. It is really a half a million strong mafia and it is stubborn as fuck and isn't likely to compromise, as shown by repeated violent crackdowns over the past few decades. There are no good solutions, and bombing the shit out of that place will simply make the entire region a ridiculous cesspool especially when the IndoChina region has long been a drugs and weapons conduit.
 

Vikram

Well-known member
Try to avoid throwing red herrings, and be that as it may, and as much as I can imagine the junta might try to distract people with another stupid pogrom, it is very much preoccupied with dealing with protests.

And in any case, an academic from Thailand has written a decent article pointing out the considerations of the various nations in Asean and China.


TLDR:

1. ASEAN is ineffectual, in part many of its members aren't exactly exemplars of democracy, let alone Thailand which is also led by its own version of a military junta.
2. The junta is pretty much entrenched and getting them to do anything out of goodwill is going to be bloody difficult.
3. There is essentially not much ASEAN can do and either way, it is a lose-lose.

Ultimately, the fundamental issue is the relationship between Suu Kyi and the Min Aung Hlaing. Neither liked each other, to put everything very mildly, and Suu Kyi apparently made attempts to introduce more civilian control of the government, which the military has long seen as its retirement job complex and through the government, used the country as a personal piggy bank, running various businesses. Suu Kyi tried to reverse some of that, and the military decided to take back control by force. It is really a half a million strong mafia and it is stubborn as fuck and isn't likely to compromise, as shown by repeated violent crackdowns over the past few decades. There are no good solutions, and bombing the shit out of that place will simply make the entire region a ridiculous cesspool especially when the IndoChina region has long been a drugs and weapons conduit.
So the only good end would be a fantasy world where the soldiers themselves rebel in favour of the democratic civil government.
Either that, or somehow, some new faction appears out of thin air that can do it.

Since both these options are unlikely at best and ridiculous at worst, we should conclude that Myanmar is screwed for the time being?
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
So the only good end would be a fantasy world where the soldiers themselves rebel in favour of the democratic civil government.
Either that, or somehow, some new faction appears out of thin air that can do it.

Since both these options are unlikely at best and ridiculous at worst, we should conclude that Myanmar is screwed for the time being?
Has been for decades.
 

Alias

Bean Daddy
Moderator


436 or more people killed since the coup.
 

Vikram

Well-known member


436 or more people killed since the coup.
It's getting hot now. Nowhere near peak as far as things go here, but far above normal.
Tis a shame that we cannot intervene to beat Beijing's puppets this time.
 

Alias

Bean Daddy
Moderator

510 now dead.

Lot of news sites speculating about civil war though technically the country has been fighting one since 1948.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
As long as the military is one coherent block there will be no civil war.

If the military cracks in to factions though...
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
As long as the military is one coherent block there will be no civil war.

If the military cracks in to factions though...
I am seriously not sure what it would take to crack the military. They shot up monks the last time round despite superstition and all that. The truth has been the leadership is probably content with the way things are and have enough guns to back it up
 

Eliar

Well-known member
I am seriously not sure what it would take to crack the military. They shot up monks the last time round despite superstition and all that. The truth has been the leadership is probably content with the way things are and have enough guns to back it up
I remember that being the opinion for Syria as well and suddenly BOOM!

Many a dictatorial state look like it has iron control, until suddenly it does not/
 
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