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China's rise - how did it happen?

Accelerator

Well-known member
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Ok. Here's the thing.

Use of this thread: China's industrialization.

So anyone that is familiar with chinese recent history, and can tell me how fast China has modernized and industrialized? Cause I myself aren't very sure.
 
Quite fast, I'd say. Not as crazy fast as the Japanese or the Koreans, but very fast indeed.
 
Not very fast considering the Tongzhi Emperor began a series of efforts to strengthen China including some industrialization which began in 1861, seven years before Japan's Meiji Restoration kicked off Japan's rise to power. The first Sino-Japanese War in 1894 showed how Japan's efforts to industrialize were working while China on the other hand had alot debt and little to show for it. It continued to industrialize in the south east and north east though a major effort to industrialize would not begin till the PROC took over in 1949. Though it's early efforts were well a failure. The Great Leap Forward being a example of this as it in part caused the death of 18 to 56 million people and shrank the economy of the PROC from 1958 to 1962. It was only after Mao death in 1976 the arrest of the Gang of 4 and the adoption of the "Reform and Opening Up" policy in December 1978 which began a series of incremental reforms and opening up to foreign investment. So from 1979 onward did industrialization in China really take off.

China helped fueled this with massive loans and various state capitalist policies. Fast forward today and China is the second largest economy in the world and one of the back bones to global economy recovery after the 08 financial crisis. So of course while China has had a major rise in the last forty years I have my doubts that the good economic times are going to last for China.
 
Communism happened back when communism still meant heavy industrialization and power self sufficiency at all costs.

Cost being tens of millions of dead but yeah you get the point I believe.
 
The reptilian globalist new world order want an industrial base to build up their forces for the final assault on freedom and justice, and what better place to do that than the heart* of oriental despotism?

*well, discount version, close enough.
 
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Here is the thing about China, if it's rulers really want to, they can and will do anything to do it. China was constantly fucked over by much of Europe (particularly the British), and that was mostly due to the Qing Dynasty being unable to realize that if they don't change then they'll get killed, which was what basically happened.

Japan is different due to the fact that the Tokugawa Shogunate knew that the day will come that Europeans will try to fuck them over, the Opium Wars simply accelerated their plans. Then the US came in and basically bust into the place with their gunboats...

... forcing the Tokugawa leadership to start a crash industrialization program that led to the Meji Restoration.

That's a major difference between China and Japan. China's institutions and leaders couldn't change, Japan's leaders were preparing for the day practically since the aftermath of the Waring States Period and the ill-fated Korean Campaign with Dutch studies and were far more adaptable than their mainland counterparts (as in, Japan after the Waring States Period was so enthusiastic with guns that they were one of the most gun-heavy armies on the fucking planet).
 
I've heard a very interesting thing today, from a very, very smart guy: The only future Europe has is tourism. Europe is going to become the Disneyland of the Far East.
 
We learned this in global class 2 years back, but i forgot it all.( There is a big "forget" curve in high school, american ones at least.
 
Mao died. The RussoChinese Schism has already occured.

People that were not ideoologue morons took power and realized the unique historical opportunity.

They had the biggest population in the planet, plenty of industry as result of the previous decades crash programs and an international climate ready to do anything to have China stay away from Soviet Union.

So they grabbed the opportunity with both hands, feet and teeth and here we are.
 
So anyone that is familiar with chinese recent history, and can tell me how fast China has modernized and industrialized? Cause I myself aren't very sure.
Deng Xiaoping cited Lenin, the Chinese took that quote to heart and voila.
 
So anyone that is familiar with chinese recent history, and can tell me how fast China has modernized and industrialized? Cause I myself aren't very sure.

Why don't you ask someone who is currently studying about Chinese politics and have read books about Chinese industrialization tell you about it?

The answer is complex. And mostly starts after Mao's death. I guess everyone here knows about Deng Xiaoping and his reformist policies, setting up Coastal Development Areas and Special Economic Zones with lower taxes and less red tape. What is less known (I think at least) is the role the US and the rural Chinese population plays in China's industrialization.

Let's discuss the United States first, It's the 70s, cold war's happening, Nixon's in office, and America just lost Vietnam. American presence in Asia just took a massive hit after the whole blunder, lots of American soldiers dying, lots of internal tension within the US, primarily with the public against the war in Vietnam, AND the USA just finished signing off the Civil rights and Voting rights act. Not to mention, Nixon is busy spearheading a policy of detente. So increased US interventionism in the world, ESPECIALLY after the debacle that is Vietnam, ain't happening for quite sometime.

But there's this thing called the Soviet Union, and the US, seeing an opportunity, and also realizing It's current situation, switches It's foreign policy to engage China, engage China to prevent the Soviet Union from expanding it's presence in Asia. And China fits this role, together with Japan. The USA, China, and Japan forms a sort of 'strategic triangle' to fight the USSR in Asia, not fight literally, but prevent further Soviet encroachment into Asia after Vietnam.

China's industrialization is partly the result of the loosening of tensions between China and the USA. The USA formally recognizes China into the UN P5 (kinda but not really shafting Taiwan), American investment (US investment is not the absolute majority, but it forms a sizable part of the industrialization of China, no doubt about it) boomed, American businesses set up shop in the coastal provinces, and the Chinese economy began to grow. This all culminated in China's acceptance into the WTO as an MFN nation, roughly in 2000-2001. THAT is the point where China's economy began to grow, and grow really, really fast.

But, all this wouldn't be to such an extent if not for the massive, and I really do mean MASSIVE migration of rural Chinese workers into the Urban Provinces, searching for jobs and new opportunities, for the Rural Chinese, decades of Cultural Revolutions, Great Leap Forwards and Famines left them with not a lot of choice, the moment a factory opens up and is looking for employees, it is the rural Chinese that leapt onto the occasion and worked their butts off producing various goods for China to export. We are talking a mass migration in the hundreds of millions, so many lives moving into coastal provinces, a very notable example of this is Shenzhen. China's silicon valley. Just take a look at the satellite imagery of the damn city.
1973-L1-12-25-1973-574_Intro-labels.png

This is the Pearl River Delta in 1973

2017-L8-10-23-2017-754_Intro-labels.png

Same Area in 2017

Mass migration coupled with investment from overseas, American foreign policy shifts, as well as pretty good timing of Mao's death allowed all this to happen. I'm sure some details are missed. But this is the general overview of how China industrialized.
 
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"Thousand Year Marathon" and "Chinese Views of Future Warfare", both by Pillsbury. First is widely avaiable, second on FAS for free to read (https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/chinview/chinacont.html). Both clearly show rise to power of China for the past 50 years or so.

It is actually clear and simple picture - changing security enviroment and paradgims - to not end up as a next USSR or Jugoslavia and prevent seizure of power by foreing powers through internal popular revolutions. It was heavily top down affair, coupled with the help of IMF, World Bank and leading economical advisers. Chinese took the advices, and, which is most importantly, adjusted them to the local enviroment. Thus it prevented the popular in Eastern Europe destruction of local production capacity and brain drain, and also economical subjugation by international corporations through destruction of the native industries and service providers. Thanks to that, Chinese managed to achieve what is currently know as "Chinese economic miracle".

Note that Milton Friedman (yes, the same who got Nobel prize) in 1993 prohecised economical dawnfall of China due to the CCP leaders not letting completely free "market's invisible hand" run it's course. Most of the cities, then empty (called "ghost cities"), were called by him "Potemkin villages for the Emperor" - the same which now are economical powerhouses and industry hubs. We see know that whole secret of the "Miracle" and Chinese success was rational execution of strategic cycle, of rational planning and adjsuting plans and goals as situation demanded. State's intervention also was used as a driving and guiding mechanism, with radical measures taken, with haste mind you, during 2008 financial crysis, which anabled stabilisation of the situation, once again, to the literal shock of the leading economists.

{based on: Bradsher K., Chinas economy become no 2 by defying no 1 , https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/11/27/chinas-economy-became-no-2-by-defying-no-1.html [access: 2021.07.15] }

Also of note is a fact that PRC invested heavily into the developement of the infrastructure, which anabled not only speedy progress of modernisation, but also exploitation of resources and human capital in a more efficient way, playing part with dramatic reduction of poverty and creation of the 300 milion strong middle class (China Military Power 2019), conneting remote regions, establishing robust and effective supply chains. THAT created an enviroment which enabled further economical expansion and attraction of the external capital and know-how, which was crucial for modernisational effort and for establishing fundaments for own, modern high-tech industry.

Also rememer that none of that would be possible if not for Iranian Revolution, which cut off US from survailance capacity aimed on USSR and Sino-Soviet split (which was not ideological - the clue of the split was: 1. who will lead the socialist world? and 2. Chinese were rapidly modernising and Soviet Union have seen the tempo of acquring, introduction and dissimination of new technologies as too fast and dangerous for it's own security and status of global superpower - curiosity: Napoleon Bonaparte when asked about China was alleged to say "Let the Chinese sleep, becouse when they awake, it will be a great emabrrasment/problem for the World", given tempo and assimiliation and modernisation effort and then unused potential, especially human potential, it was evident that the USSR was creating another, independent superpower - thus we got Sino-Soviet split). US seeing that, they have thawed their relations with the Middle Kingdom and greatly supported with money, know-how, techology (including military). Chinese muslim Uighurs and Xinjang province were crucial for fighting USSR in Afghanistan - training camps and supply routes, and also fresh supply of holy warriors for the Afghan grinder (not that part, it is one of the problems for the ongoing problems between Chinese and Uighurs). Also North and North-Eastern Chinese provinces were places for US intelligence gathering effort on the USSR.

Thanks to that, China was not isolated politically and economically from the rapidly developeing global free trade zone, from which the USSR and Warsaw Pact was, which was in the end main reason for their demise. China apparently was to follow it's path, and Yugoslavia, a suposedly natural process - press and books from the 90s period are abundat with it, with even famous dissulution scenario ("divorce with the poor", vide Toffler for example) - a specific case of the Fukuyama's self fulfiling prophecy of "end of history". Yet, Chinese, mindful of what is going around the world, did actually everything they could to create prosperous enviroment for themselves to not end two previously mentioned sociallist countries.

In the end also we must remember about Tienamnen, a place where de facto, was written down specific kind of social contract. It may be a perverse thing to say, but the Party have tasted widespread dissent - Chinese aremd and security apparatus is too small to pacify the largest (or, recently second largest) nation on the planet - economical reneval and modernisation was necessary. That is why Chinese are building for themselves "Chines dream", of stable and prosperous enviroment, where nation and state will thrive and develope, secured ecnomicalaly, politically and militarly (also enviromentally) - Party keeps ruling, nation propspers, state endures - and all that on an appropriate, increasing standard of living, not subsistance level.
And as we see, it is working actually. Supposed "Potemkin villages" are modern civilisational hubs teaming with life, innovation and high-technology, PRC didn't collapse nor dissolve, but become first (or second, depending on sources and counting methods) economic power of the World, nowadays openly hatching into the superpower stage.
 
Note that Milton Friedman (yes, the same who got Nobel prize) in 1993 prohecised economical dawnfall of China due to the CCP leaders not letting completely free "market's invisible hand" run it's course.
Two remarks: one, if Friedman has a Nobel prize in economics, then I have a Nobel prize in mathematics, which makes just as much sense because there is no such thing as a Nobel prize for economics, only a prize from the Bank of Sweden (apparently, economists are so insecure they pretend to have a Nobel prize these days) and, two, Friedman is an idiot and has been for decades only surpassed in idiocy by Friedrich Hayek (but then, Austrian theorists are almost universally awful).
 
Two remarks: one, if Friedman has a Nobel prize in economics, then I have a Nobel prize in mathematics, which makes just as much sense because there is no such thing as a Nobel prize for economics, only a prize from the Bank of Sweden (apparently, economists are so insecure they pretend to have a Nobel prize these days) and, two, Friedman is an idiot and has been for decades only surpassed in idiocy by Friedrich Hayek (but then, Austrian theorists are almost universally awful).

Come on, we all know that only working economy exist when you rip previous together with roots, plow and salt the earth. There is not free trade without liberty, democracy and capitalism. THAT IS BLATANTLY FALSE, at least when we see these terms in purely, propagandistic meaning they are given through the popular understanding. US defined freedom is de facto freedom of making buisness. Democracy is political power distribution system and capitalism is economical system, not some kind of ultimate truth, end of history revelation on par with religion.
What is needed is rational thinking, critical rational thinking. Ability to set goals, plan in advance and elastic execution of them without losing the goals from sight in the meantime. Sadly we nowadays magical and propaganda (not even wishful) thinking is commonplace and the norm. The difference between China, Russia and other states, is that they critically analyse enviroment in which they are existing and plan accordingly, and effects are staggering. But it takes time, rise of china was continous hard work for past four decades, work that was by general population experiance and the dividend felt. Capability to plan ahead is crucial. Meanwhile, mob on the other side of Atlantic spread mantra of "we are the sole superpower", just as their Navy suffers ever growing backlog on maintenence, administration bagatelised COVID-19 and mob sacked their Congress (a thing that is passed over as something that did not happen or with no importance). Changes ahead, Napoleon have spoken the truth.
 
Come on, we all know that only working economy exist when you rip previous together with roots, plow and salt the earth. There is not free trade without liberty, democracy and capitalism. THAT IS BLATANTLY FALSE, at least when we see these terms in purely, propagandistic meaning they are given through the popular understanding. US defined freedom is de facto freedom of making buisness. Democracy is political power distribution system and capitalism is economical system, not some kind of ultimate truth, end of history revelation on par with religion.
What is needed is rational thinking, critical rational thinking. Ability to set goals, plan in advance and elastic execution of them without losing the goals from sight in the meantime. Sadly we nowadays magical and propaganda (not even wishful) thinking is commonplace and the norm. The difference between China, Russia and other states, is that they critically analyse enviroment in which they are existing and plan accordingly, and effects are staggering. But it takes time, rise of china was continous hard work for past four decades, work that was by general population experiance and the dividend felt. Capability to plan ahead is crucial. Meanwhile, mob on the other side of Atlantic spread mantra of "we are the sole superpower", just as their Navy suffers ever growing backlog on maintenence, administration bagatelised COVID-19 and mob sacked their Congress (a thing that is passed over as something that did not happen or with no importance). Changes ahead, Napoleon have spoken the truth.
You sound like you wanna get banned from SB. ^_^;
 
You sound like you wanna get banned from SB. ^_^;

SB was and still is de facto one of the few (if not sole) data mining OSINT community. It is a gold mine of digested info, which actually reliably substitutes most of the real new outlets (especially TV). Problem is that for quite some time they, democratically, are turning into the propaganda echo chamber. Long past are the days of wargaming scenarios and free policy discussion. Since Floyd protests, saciking of Capitol and rise of PRC, SB falls to the standards of Grau and Zaloga, and university level tenets of irrational non-Western governments and "vodka culture". Soon we will once again hear about suicidal Chinese charges.

Without us, the Rome is falling.
But do not worry, we will turn this message board to the true successor of SB ;)
 
SB was and still is de facto one of the few (if not sole) data mining OSINT community. It is a gold mine of digested info, which actually reliably substitutes most of the real new outlets (especially TV). Problem is that for quite some time they, democratically, are turning into the propaganda echo chamber. Long past are the days of wargaming scenarios and free policy discussion. Since Floyd protests, saciking of Capitol and rise of PRC, SB falls to the standards of Grau and Zaloga, and university level tenets of irrational non-Western governments and "vodka culture". Soon we will once again hear about suicidal Chinese charges.

Without us, the Rome is falling.
But do not worry, we will turn this message board to the true successor of SB ;)
I so much hope NOT. This place and its Discord are nice and not-stressful. Getting back to the density of shittery of golden age SB would be pretty damn fucking tiring to say the least. But, yeah, SB had started becoming once again a Murika echo chamber since the second half of the 2010s, with a level of normalized nationalism that is off the charts. What astonishes me when looking back on this time is that I was unironically described as a French nationalist when I wasn't nearly close to a tenth of the behaviour judged normal and conventional from the Colonial posters.
 
Yeah, it was something around that time. A lot of good posters who where reasonable and quite knowledgeable that I remember that made that place, stopped posting either or reduced their activity. Then there are some like kodiak that went batshit insane.


I also around that time asked a lot of people from various military sites and blog's from Ru.net and whom many of were on MP.net and made the Russian photo's and military news and equipment thread on MP.net so good to join. But a lot decline because of the blunt Russophobia at that time fueled by Ukraine boogaloo and good dose of Americanism that started to come up. That and lets be frank besides off topic and war room it's a weird fucking forum. Granted I remember QinetiQ once claimed there was a honcho from Strategic Rockets Forces among us that did the RP section. But I have no idea who that was or if it is even true. There was a FSB guy trolling. And a Su-35 pilot who never I believe posted.
 
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I so much hope NOT. This place and its Discord are nice and not-stressful. Getting back to the density of shittery of golden age SB would be pretty damn fucking tiring to say the least. But, yeah, SB had started becoming once again a Murika echo chamber since the second half of the 2010s, with a level of normalized nationalism that is off the charts. What astonishes me when looking back on this time is that I was unironically described as a French nationalist when I wasn't nearly close to a tenth of the behaviour judged normal and conventional from the Colonial posters.

For me the ending was in 2018 when we were discussing September Campaing, when knowledge of our overesteemed military members came out, with IxJac literaly though that German Panzer divisions could literaly teleport from Eastern Poland to the Saar near instanously and others gave show of general lack of geographical knowledge nor economic implications and supply structure. Nobody known nothing about Saar offensive plans and preparations and German Force structure.
And true, since Crimea actually, SB started becoming a battleground with Mod running wild. Funny thing, whole subject of the Iron Dome's recent use and Hamas rocket campaing was locked and deleted (or Mods claim that it will be purged), from fears of us and board being accussed of supporting terrorism. It is total paranoia, becouse all of the material is from open sources and basic math was alredy done by the interested parties. Better, possibly interested parties have access to better info not some trivialities the SB can conjourn (unless we assume that we together have greater collective knowledge and analytic capacity than Hamas and co. supported by state actors).

Yeah, it was something around that time. A lot of good posters who where reasonable and quite knowledgeable that I remember that made that place, stopped posting either or reduced their activity. Then there are some like kodiak that went batshit insane.


I also around that time asked a lot of people from various military sites and blog's from Ru.net and whom many of were on MP.net and made the Russian photo's and military news and equipment thread on MP.net so good to join. But a lot decline because of the blunt Russophobia at that time fueled by Ukraine boogaloo and good dose of Americanism that started to come up. That and lets be frank besides off topic and war room it's a weird fucking forum. Granted I remember QinetiQ once claimed there was a honcho from Strategic Rockets Forces among us that did the RP section. But I have no idea who that was or if it is even true. There was a FSB guy trolling. And a Su-35 pilot who never I believe posted.
QintiQ was good becouse, he was bringing technical side of the Eastern hardware - he was the one who run the vanguard of explaining, for us, obvious, for the rest arcane knowledge, of planning, disposition and use of weapon systems and platforms, something that most of other posters thought was only domaing of the West. You remember how we rolled over Jager and his silly ideas? How everyone that Soviets also have had MICLICs?, how demining is something more than mine flails and bayonets?
People get off of Cold War propaganda thinking that potential armed conflict would be one sided slaughter of Eastern communist horde, but when shown reality, their plans vaporise like snoflake on frying pan.
But seriosusly, nothing came as close as Wetapunga discarding rules of physics and orbital mechanics as outdated.
 
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For me the ending was in 2018 when we were discussing September Campaing, when knowledge of our overesteemed military members came out, with IxJac literaly though that German Panzer divisions could literaly teleport from Eastern Poland to the Saar near instanously and others gave show of general lack of geographical knowledge nor economic implications and supply structure. Nobody known nothing about Saar offensive plans and preparations and German Force structure.
And true, since Crimea actually, SB started becoming a battleground with Mod running wild. Funny thing, whole subject of the Iron Dome's recent use and Hamas rocket campaing was locked and deleted (or Mods claim that it will be purged), from fears of us and board being accussed of supporting terrorism. It is total paranoia, becouse all of the material is from open sources and basic math was alredy done by the interested parties. Better, possibly interested parties have access to better info not some trivialities the SB can conjourn (unless we assume that we together have greater collective knowledge and analytic capacity than Hamas and co. supported by state actors).
TBH, I've moved away from most defence-focused forums and the such, because US ones, French ones or, God forbids, Indian ones, they're all bloody nutbar when you start talking about anything that becomes even borderline political. Which is one of the reasons I'm pretty happy with the FiC community as it is (most stuff is on Discord, though): weird, misfits, but at least not too painfully insane in good part because everyone knows everyone else.
But seriosusly, nothing came as close as Wetapunga discarding rules of physics and orbital mechanics as outdated.
Urgh, Weta. The Musk cultist mixed with a space cadet whose apparently greatest ambition is to be a good vassal of Murika.
 
TBH, I've moved away from most defence-focused forums and the such, because US ones, French ones or, God forbids, Indian ones, they're all bloody nutbar when you start talking about anything that becomes even borderline political. Which is one of the reasons I'm pretty happy with the FiC community as it is (most stuff is on Discord, though): weird, misfits, but at least not too painfully insane in good part because everyone knows everyone else.

Urgh, Weta. The Musk cultist mixed with a space cadet whose apparently greatest ambition is to be a good vassal of Murika.

On the other hand it is understandable - had EU did not fracture like it did, we would see emergence of Brussels (through Warsaw) - Moscow - Beijing axis, that effectively shuts US out global free trade zone and curtails dramatically their power projection, with them suffering fate of the USSR basically. Strong Europe was not something that US nor Russia could bear in the geoplitical great game (despite obvious benefits, such large, politically and with that economically and militarly unified actor is too powerful and too independent). Thus thanks to the 2015 and literal turning democracy and liberalism into farce (three countries, shown as literal pillars of democracy - Great Britain, cradle of parlametarism, USA, first true modern and stable democratic global superpower, and Poland, posterwoman of how you can turn post-communist state into the role model democracy, elected idiots and literal psychos into the power).
 
One factor I've often seen people forgetting regarding China's growth is the importance of its neighborhood in China's growth story.
 
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