https://apnews.com/article/israel-p...kes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2 Saw this just as I was about to go to sleep.
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2023 Israel-Gaza conflict
- Thread starter Alias
- Start date
Kamakura bakufu
Well-known member
It is more serious than usual.
I remember years ago, there was a video of a guy talking to a 10-12-year-old boy.
He asked; "Do you want to be a Martyr or a Jihadist".
That video was not from Gaza, it was from Afghanistan.
Looks like Hamas is trying to Martyrdom a sizable part of their population.
There is only one way, in my opinion, this will end. Israel will win, then a decade down the line the whole thing will start all over again. Israel Palestinian conflict is the energizer bunny of a conflict.
He asked; "Do you want to be a Martyr or a Jihadist".
That video was not from Gaza, it was from Afghanistan.
Looks like Hamas is trying to Martyrdom a sizable part of their population.
There is only one way, in my opinion, this will end. Israel will win, then a decade down the line the whole thing will start all over again. Israel Palestinian conflict is the energizer bunny of a conflict.
Arius
Well-known member
It's mainly Iran and some weapons of their own making. They're dumb, but resourceful.
Really thought there are some more players....
So, the chances are high that they get slapped hard then.
Arius
Well-known member
Nah, I don't think a military solution will effectively wipe them out. Quite the contrary, the more the Israelis aggressively react to their attack, the more people in the Gaza strip will join Hamas.
IMO, right now, on a regional scale, we need to keep a close eye on a number of factors. I'll mention two of them :
- 1) The Lebanese Hezbollah is just waiting to lend a hand to the Palestinians, but it is hampered by its country's fragile economic situation. If it were to strongly intervene, it would undermine the initiatives that Lebanon is currently undertaking to recover economically, in particular the exploitation of gas fields that has just begun. It would alienate a large part of society.
- 2) Another interesting indicator is the situation in the West Bank. If the population does not mobilise, it will probably mean that Hamas has made a mistake and hasn't managed to create a strong support for their operation, but if violence breaks out or terrorist attacks are confirmed, it is then likely that the other external players(*) will mobilise(**).
(*) These include pretty much every Iran-backed non-state actors: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, or even — although less likely — the Houthis in Yemen, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq and pro-Iranian militant forces in Syria. If the conflict spiral out of control, they could all be involved in varying degree (by providing weapons, militants, launching attacks say in the Golan heights,...).
(**) I do not believe other state actors (like Egypt, Jordan, Syria, even Iran...) will intervene directly.. So external players will be pretty much limited to non-state actors only.
smuggling, and some supporters. They get money from various Arab countries and individuals, and most of their kit is small arms and light artillery that are not hard to smuggle in.
Kiinda. The invasion forces are dead meat one way or another, but going in and occupying Gaza (again, Israel occupied it for decades until the late-80s) would be a something they no longer have the resources.
Eliar
Well-known member
Hum so Israel cut off food, fuel and more important water to Gaza.
And looking at official statement they may have actuslly decided to go full Gaza Dalenta Est.
Hamas on the other hand is going full Kratman villain threatening to kill a hostage per hour if the bombardment does not stop.
And looking at official statement they may have actuslly decided to go full Gaza Dalenta Est.
Hamas on the other hand is going full Kratman villain threatening to kill a hostage per hour if the bombardment does not stop.
Arius
Well-known member
Yay! More human rights violations... :/
Yay! More human rights violations :/
First, they start a war then they expect the Israelis to stop bombing the entire place. Who would've thought of that... Idiocy at its finest.
This is starting to look like a "Dumb or dumber" competition.
'We will change the Middle East', vows Israeli PM
Israel has declared a "state of war" following Hamas's surprise weekend attack which blindsided the country's military and intelligence agencies.
They (= both sides) will never learn.
Eliar
Well-known member
You know from several fragmented reports emerging, about the Hamas political leadership having no idea this was coming up, Israel slowly normalizing relations with several Arab countries, some speculation about some sort of deal being secretely worked on in Qatar, I wonder if what we have here is another Rabin assasination moment, if one of the targets of this Hamas raid was to blow up any chance of peace and nulify Israeli diplomatic gains.
There are also conspiracy theories/ideas popping up from the internet, specifically that Russia helped instigate this through various back channels to prevent Israeli medicine from reaching Ukraine and split the US's attention. China is sitting around, noting Iron Dome's effectiveness since Taiwan purchased that system.
Also, HAMAS has American hostages...
Also, HAMAS has American hostages...
Rufus Shinra
Well-known member
There are conspiracy theories popping up from the internet for the reason my bus was late yesterday morning.
As for the hostages, they're fucked. You ain't rescuing them all from this kind of zone and there are enough of them Hamas can publically execute a few of them after the first extraction attempts just to show they're serious while keeping a bunch of others. Eventually, the US will do like Israel and negotiate over them.
Avernus
Well-known member
More likely they want Israel to bomb the place (it's great for recruitment), but want to score political points by making Israel look like it doesn't care about the hostages.
Rufus Shinra
Well-known member
Noone in power gives a shit about the hostages or little guys there. You've got a bunch of religious retards leading pretty much every single faction and they won't be satisfied until they have displaced or killed the other factions from their 'holy' areas. In the meantime, it's the common people all over the place who get fucked in round 5820 of the party.
Arius
Well-known member
I think you both have a point there. This could be the military arm of Hamas bypassing its political wing in order to gain dominance internally and provoke such a strong reaction from Israel that it would create enough political pressure to nullify Israel's agreements with several Arab states like the Emirates and Bahrain, which were viewed by the Palestinians as treason and contrary to the solidarity expected from the Muslim world.
It won't work obviously, at least unless Israel does something really stupid.
Avernus
Well-known member
Of course they don't; but politically the Israeli government is supposed to at least pretend.
Rufus Shinra
Well-known member
Actually, they don't. They have a protocol to allow troops to do anything to prevent the opposing side to get away with a hostage... including massively bombing the area where the hostage and the takers are.
And that's as usual dumb. Israel's contribution to the Ukrainian war effort was minimal for a whole host of reasons (Russia has a sizeable Jewish population and centuries long history of making them the scapegoats when things went badly, so they don't want to antagonize them, Israel doesn't have a lot of free stuff just lying around to be handed over on a moment's notice), even before Netanyahu got the reins. And while the US is known to readily send supplied to Israel in case of a conflict, the kind of gear it send is mainly stuff it doesn't give to Ukraine. Like airplane launched PGMs and missiles, that need an F-15, F-16 or an AH-64 as a launch platform.
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Rufus Shinra
Well-known member
There are always 'incidents' such as scientists being assassinated. Doubtful Israel would start a whole war over this, especially as Teheran isn't exactly pulling the strings of Hamas and even the US says it has no information regarding actual Iranian backing of the attack.